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The clock is ticking

by Nick Kent | 28.05.2017
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The EU has chosen three big questions for the first phase of the talks: money; citizens’ rights; and the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic. The money is the biggest issue because the UK is net contributor to the EU and because EU spending plans for the next few years have already been agreed by the UK. The total owed has been estimated at up to €100 billion.

How will May sell anything approaching this to her backbenchers? Deluded Leavers have claimed that we might not have to pay anything or even that we could get money back. Far from preparing public opinion for the harsh reality, Brexit Secretary David Davis has even threatened to walk out of the talks over the issue.

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On citizens’ rights, the EU wants to be generous. That would be good for Brits living in the EU but a political and management headache here. The government certainly doesn’t like the EU’s suggestion that this part of the deal should be subject to the EU’s courts.

There is a management headache too because the UK government has no record of where EU citizens live or when they arrived or left. And then there is the £12 billion a year shortfall to taxes the Institute of Fiscal  Studies predicts if May manages to cut net migration to the promised tens of thousands. If a lot more EU migrants leave the UK, they will take their skills and their spending power with them.

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Finally, there is a real anxiety about the reintroduction of border controls, including customs posts, on the island of Ireland. The UK has a little more leverage on this question, not least because it is hard to decide what controls would be needed on the Irish border without knowing what  the future trade and immigration arrangements between the UK and the EU will be.  

On the other hand, the UK is weakened by the political consequences of the Brexit referendum in Northern Ireland, including the (hopefully temporary) collapse of the power-sharing executive. If Sinn Fein does well in the general election, that could make the situation worse.

British officials have been preparing for the negotiations during the election period but the UK looks under-prepared, and many ministers over-optimistic, in advance of the biggest set of diplomatic negotiations since at least World War Two.

 

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Edited by Hugo Dixon

Categories: Brexit Negotiations

One Response to “The clock is ticking”

  • I believe people are beginning to fully realise the enormity of the utter mess which Tory in-fighting over the EU has caused already, and the horrific mess yet to come.

    Reply