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With a final tactical voting push, we can beat Johnson

by Hugo Dixon | 11.12.2019

The good news from a huge new YouGov poll is that the Tory lead is shrinking. The bad news is they are still ahead – because too many pro-European votes are being wasted.

Boris Johnson is heading for a 28-seat majority. That would mean ripping us out of the EU – despite the fact that the will of the people has changed and most voters no longer want Brexit.

Look at the maths. The Tories are projected to get 52% of the seats in our Parliament despite the fact that they and their allies in the Brexit Party will get only 46% of the vote.

That’s better than the YouGov poll from two weeks ago. Then the Tories were projected to get a 68-seat majority with 55% of all MPs. Their share of the vote hasn’t changed in the intervening period. That suggests that pro-referendum voters are getting smarter in backing the candidates with the best chance of beating the Tories – but not yet smart enough.

Some big Brexiter beasts are now vulnerable. The Prime Minister himself is only nine points ahead of Labour in Uxbridge. Iain Duncan Smith is just two points in front in Chingford. Theresa Villiers is four points behind in Chipping Barnet.

Meanwhile, Dominic Raab is only two points ahead of the Lib Dems in Esher and Walton. The Lib Dems are also in hot pursuit of John Redwood in Wokingham. They are just five points behind.

We are tantalisingly close to victory. But we are not there yet.

We now need industrial scale tactical voting in these seats and across the land to bring the Tories down. People must hold their noses and vote for the candidate with the best chance of beating the Conservatives even if it’s not their first choice.

YouGov’s estimate of the vote share in each constituency is available here.

The piece was updated to include reference to Theresa Villiers

Edited by Sam Ashworth-Hayes

Categories: UK Politics

2 Responses to “With a final tactical voting push, we can beat Johnson”

  • Can we publicly perhaps be a bit clearer about why the Tories so desperately want the nation out of the EU? That it isn’t because of national glory and taking back control for democratic reasons? But that really, it is to enable greater control for financial adventurers, the type so heavily involved in the causes for the 2008 financial crash? To escape EU measures to counter tax-avoidance and dumping of dirty money? It is therefore that upper-crust Tory Brexiteers, not by co-incidence mostly stemming from financial backgrounds, are so cool about the UK potentially breaking up. Neither Scotland nor Northern Ireland are serious earning prospects for that kind of people, but only cost money. Similar the damage they do to the British manufacturing industry, your source of earnings, or the NHS. Neither of these are interesting as earners to such people. Moreover, once they’re in the seat of government, without the EU looking over their shoulders, they can change whatever laws need changing to govern your nation. That therefore democracy and well-being for the not super-rich, the likes of you and I, is under serious threat. That is perhaps something that should have been used a mite harder against the wave of lies promising heaven on the green and pleasant island.

    As no one less than Daily Mail journalist Peter Oborne so honestly pointed out the moment he lost trust in the Brexit proceedings: when the very wealthy and the hard left find common cause, perhaps it is time to ask what causes that foul smell.

  • Well said, Peter. A lot of us have been saying this but you have expressed it really well. Indeed, why hasn’t the Remain side been hammering this point home in simple language and putting people such as John Redwood under greater public scrutiny. May gave Redwood a knighthood to try and buy his support for her Deal. But, her deal wasn’t ‘hard’ enough for Redwood, a guy who makes money in the financial sector. I asked him to tell me why he deserved a gong on his website and, guess what, it was removed in a matter of minutes. The hardcore 40-50 in the ERG are the ones driving all of this and somehow we have let them get away with it. Raab, Truss and the rest of the Britannia Unchained mob have wagged the whole country, lied to the people and, once the leash was taken off by the idiot Cameron, all hell has let loose.
    Commentators are saying that the election campaign has seen people engaging in politics. If that is true, many do not have a clue about the issues. I have even heard a woman say she was voting Tory because the she needed the NHS and thought it was safer in the hands of Johnson. (BBC South Today). Such ignorance is frightening.
    The other thing is that Johnson has been allowed to get away without being scrutinised and asked the difficult questions in long interviews. A reporter asked him a question when he was in Pusey this morning and a ‘minder’ pushed him away and told him to ‘F… Off”. People just do not realise what will happen if he gets a majority. If that happens I hope INFACTS and all the other groups keep going, because the fight will not be over. I’m in my 70s but will keep fighting this madness until the day I die.