In a famous passage in Through the Looking Glass, the Red Queen tells Alice about the odd relationship, in her realm, between time, space and speed. “Here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place.”
That surreal state of affairs seemed not too far away this week as Theresa May conferred with leaders of Ireland’s two jurisdictions. The prime minister made a brisk visit to Belfast on 25 June, including a media appearance in which she took one question and gave a 57-second answer, and she received Enda Kenny, Ireland’s Taoiseach, at Downing Street the following day.
Mrs May and all her interlocutors agreed that British-Irish relations were now in a very good place (warm, seamless, mutually beneficial). Both countries, she said, had a “strong will” to maintain the relationship in its happy location. But why does the point need emphasizing?
The reason, of course, is the Brexit vote. As Mrs May admitted, “very complex issues” need tackling if a benign British-Irish symbiosis is to survive. As of now, the two countries have an even closer relationship than is mandated by membership of the European Union; for example, the Irish republic has a formal say in one part of the United Kingdom, Northern Ireland. But Brexit means the two states will be on opposite sides of a highly sensitive EU border through Ireland, over which much blood has flowed and which will gain salience. Mrs May, Mr Kenny and Northern Ireland First Minister Arlene Foster all excluded any return to the “hard” securitised border as it existed when violence raged before 1994. But that is not the same as saying there will be no toughening of the border at all. Among the “complex issues” Mrs May acknowledged, three stand out: border controls aimed at keeping out terrorists, border controls aimed at stopping economic migration, and the movement of goods and services.
In some ways the first is the simplest. Britain and Ireland have both stayed out of the Schengen zone and they already collaborate over security. Economic migration is more sensitive. As an EU member, Ireland must keep doors open to EU migrants; in the UK there is huge pressure to restrict access. Will the inter-Irish border become the place where such migrants are filtered out? That sounds messy and unenforceable. It would be easier to tighten access to Great Britain from Northern Ireland, but people throughout Ireland, especially pro-British Unionists, would abhor that.
As for the movement of goods over the inter-Irish border, it will be subject to the broader UK-EU settlement. Here again, Euro-theory may run up against hard realities. Early in the recent conflict, commercial customs posts on the border were abandoned (even as security checks got tougher) because they were blown up so often. Nobody would bet much on renewed customs posts staying intact. Suggestions are already being made that Northern Ireland could have a special status inside the EU customs union; but that would require great good will on the part of the Union’s 27 remaining members, and in the coming EU-British deliberations there will be other calls on that good will.
Contemplating all that, it becomes clearer why so much fast running may be needed to keep the island of Ireland in the same, relatively good place. Moreover, in certain ways, the status quo has shifted already, although the change is a subtle, psychological one.
For people who want it now or eventually or even loathe the idea, the prospect of a united Ireland outside the United Kingdom has drawn closer. People in Northern Ireland who did not care much about the territory’s political status (including lukewarm Irish nationalists and even some hitherto lukewarm Unionists) are feeling angry over Brexit and more sympathetic to the idea of a united, European Ireland.
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For the all-Ireland leftists of Sinn Fein, who play a long game, the referendum result is an opportunity to build a broader pro-Irish-unity coalition in Northern Ireland. So it is not surprising to see a senior Sinn Fein politician, John O’Dowd, joining the leaders of nationalist and centrist parties in one of the more interesting moves to put a spoke in the Brexit wheel. Acting through a Belfast law firm, they have warned of a possible high court action to challenge any move to detach Northern Ireland from the EU, on grounds inter alia that it would violate the elaborate equality legislation that underpins Northern Ireland’s peace.
Another sign of the changing climate is that Mr Kenny, who is no nationalist, felt obliged to mention Irish unity as one possible outcome from deliberations over the island’s future. Colum Eastwood, who speaks for moderate Northern Irish nationalists, pointedly described the reunification of Ireland as “the biggest and best idea around”.
Distant dreams have become more thinkable. One feature of Ireland’s sweet status quo prior to 23 June was that all parties could retain their conflicting visions about the island’s future while accepting that nothing would change quickly. For better or worse, that feature (call it “happy stagnation”) has vanished, and big, volatile questions about the future are harder to postpone.
Edited by Michael Prest
You take it for granted that Ireland’s derogation from Schengen will continue after a Brexit. That is not, I think, a foregone conclusion, as Ireland’s derogation was consequential on the UK’s (in order to maintain the common travel area). I heard Mary Macaleese say that – in theory at least – a Brexit would bring Ireland within the Schengen Area…..
The best option would be to have the EU border between the Republic of Ireland and the UK in the sea.
The ‘real’ or sovereign border could remain on land, the UK would still own Northern Ireland. With a reverse ‘Greenland’ option EU rules could be preserved and no hard EU border would exist on the island called Ireland.
This of course all depends on the good will of all the parties involved. Mr Kenny is the only EU leader that talks ‘freely’ (talking to the UK before A50 is invoked) about the Brexit options/problems. And I wouldn’t be surprised to see the EU backing his solutions. Mr Kenny’s stance would probably be EU stance.