Conservative pro-European rebels lost some momentum after last week’s meaningful vote compromise. But this should be short-lived. With the economy rising up the agenda, they can play a decisive role in the Brexit battles ahead.
Talk of deselection, while much exaggerated, always worries MPs. The charge of being willing to wound but afraid to strike has been laid by some Labour MPs. The morale of Tory pro-Europeans outside parliament has been hit.
But Tory MPs and peers achieved important concessions in last week’s legislation. Their actions reduced the chance of the UK crashing out without a deal and put the government’s commitment to no hard border in Northern Ireland into law.
They now need to regroup and focus on the next two big political events: Theresa May’s Chequers’ Cabinet meeting next week and the debates on the Trade Bill, probably the week after that. There is all to play for and, if they can rediscover their former unity, they can bring vital pressure to bear on a weak and divided government.
The rebels’ chief strength is that they are less isolated than they appear. Many backbenchers share their concerns but haven’t acted on them yet. There are at least 12-15 ministers more who could resign. There is no House of Commons majority for a hard Brexit. And there are four million Conservative voters who voted Remain in 2016.
Demand a vote on the Brexit deal
Click here to find out moreThe “mutineers” should focus on the case against a hard Brexit. The evidence is on their side. They need to make common cause with MPs worried about the impact of austerity on vital public services, like defence, schools and the NHS. None of those are going to be improved by Brexit.
They need to do everything they can to encourage business people to speak out. Boris Johnson’s “f**k business” comment is a perfect opportunity for them to love bomb business and show that they are the true voice of the Tory Party.
The Chequers meeting will be critical. A senior Whitehall source briefed Channel 4 News earlier this week that the “risk of losing a Cabinet minister or maybe even more than one is outweighed by the dangers of delaying our policy any longer”. (Listen from 5 minute mark).
The government won’t fall if Johnson goes because he has been damaged by his repeated gaffes, the farce over Heathrow and the £350 million a week lie. The Brexiters are split between those who will make concessions to get out at any price and those who want a hard Brexit. There will be opportunities to drive wedges between them.
If the Cabinet can’t agree and plumps for yet more fudge, the tensions within the government may explode. Tory governments don’t like being accused of being in office but not in power. The coalition of rebels will get bigger at that point, as senior backbenchers and more business leaders speak out.
The Tory rebels should look forward in hope. They have taken some hard punches but they are not on the canvas just yet.
Edited by Hugo Dixon
Everything points to the recent ‘tantrums’ thrown by Gove and Johnson as being carefully stage-managed. Similarly, the serial resignation threats by David Davis were clearly designed to register with the wider public. However, privately, they probably realise Theresa May clinging onto power is their best prospect of driving through their destructive Hard Brexit. Their immediate goal is to reach the 29 March 2019 finishing line and for the UK to depart the EU at that point. Once that point is reached, they will be in a much more powerful position as the EU will be less inclined to re-negotiate any closer future relationship. To get there, Theresa May continuing to kick the can down the road until March ’19 may do the job. If Johnson or another hardliner were to be PM, the chances of winning the remaining votes in the Commons would be reduced. Theresa May obviously holds some sway with the Tory ‘rebels’, as they have let her off the hook twice in the last fortnight, as supposedly she was a Remainer, although listening to her you wouldn’t think so.
But if she were to be replaced by Gove or Johnson, even the meeker souls amongst the pro-European Tories might feel compelled to put their thoughts into votes against the Government. Either way, these Tories will hold alot of sway as to whether there really is a meaningful vote on a final deal, and if at the very least, we avert a hard Brexit which complete destroys our relationship with Europe.