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Don’t worry about voting tactically for Corbyn. He won’t win

by Rachel Franklin | 10.12.2019

The right-wing press has branded Jeremy Corbyn as totally unelectable. They are right – he is. Not for the reasons they suggest, but because of simple maths.

Over the past few weeks we have seen Corbyn-phobia on hyperdrive. The media has claimed he will “bankrupt Britain”, “cripple families” and “endanger our national security”. This ignores the fact that Labour will not be leading a majority government on Friday morning.

The Conservatives are still 10 points ahead in the latest polls, meaning the best Labour can hope for is a hung parliament. Regardless of the actual impact of his planned tax changes or his commitment to nuclear disarmament, Corbyn wouldn’t then be able to deliver much of his agenda. The only thing there would be consensus for would be a People’s Vote.

Professor John Curtice says we are facing a “pretty binary contest” between an outright victory for Johnson or a hung parliament leading to a referendum. The polling guru also says the chances of a Labour majority are “as close to zero as one can safely say”.

Labour is at risk of losing traditional heartlands in the Midlands and the North of England – and it is failing to woo back Scottish voters. In the circumstances, it’s hard to see how it can come anywhere close to gaining the extra 64 seats it needs to secure a majority. 

The betting odds reinforce this view. The 33/1 being offered for an outright Labour victory translates into a 3% chance of it happening. The odds of an overall Tory majority are about 75%, while there’s a one in five chance of a hung parliament.

With little chance of the Labour manifesto ever seeing the light of day, the media’s scaremongering is absurd – except when you realise they are trying to stop people voting tactically. What they neglect to print is that a vote for Labour where it’s the main challenger to the Tories could pose a significant threat to Boris Johnson’s Brexit. 

A mere 40,000 voters in 36 seats have the capacity to re-shape this election and rob the Tories of a majority, according to research by Best for Britain.

Faced with a choice between a Brexit that will damage Britain for decades or a hung parliament that will hold a People’s Vote but do little else, people have no reason to fear voting tactically for Labour. The alternative is far scarier.

InFacts recommends voting for the candidate with the best chance of beating the Tories so long as they back a People’s Vote

Edited by Hugo Dixon

Categories: Uncategorised

4 Responses to “Don’t worry about voting tactically for Corbyn. He won’t win”

  • I for one think the media is in a shameful state. Whether you like Corbyn or not the pure hatred towards him from the press has created an image of a person who doesn’t actually exist. Whatever happens on Thursday there needs to be some serious attempts to deal with a press that it a servant of multimillionaire proprietors, most of whom don’t live in the UK. The IPSO is toothless, it ruled against the Mail On Sunday for completely distorting Labour’s taxation plans, to the extent that they will be forced to print a correction on Page 2, citing that it could confuse voters. Great you may say, however, because they appealed the Paper will not have to print the correction until after the election, so big deal.
    Andrew Neil may have given Corbyn a grilling over the accusations of antisemitism in the Labour Party, but there is an interview that he did with Steve Baker the Brexit Secretary where he totally shredded the negative campaigning against Corbyn last year. Baker’s justification was pitiful, he basically said that he believed in a free Press and if they challenged Corbyn about a matter ( in the case in hand it was for being a traitor) there was a case to answer. It didn’t matter that wasn’t a shred of truth in it. Just imagine what its like to suffer a baseless continuous character assassination. Its worth looking up as it causes you to reflect to what extent we have all been affected by their barrage, even without subscribing to rags like the Daily Mail.
    I have come round to respecting the Corbyn’s position on Brexit. Though I am passionately for Remaining in the EU, I have to except half the country doesn’t share that point of view. The only way to bring the country together in reality is to negotiate a deal which more closely aligns to what people thought they were voting for in 2016. If it could be done in an atmosphere that was free from the lies and distortions which we have had to try and counter for the last three years we might be able to listen and understand each others concerns and work through them. A Referendum with a new deal with the right to change our minds altogether would be the mark of a grown up nation. I am not sure we are.

  • I am by no means a Corbyn fan, but in my constituency, the Lib Dems finished a poor 3rd in the last 2 general elections behind Labour. This is a crisis situation and the far greater danger is that Johnson and the Tories get elected. Therefore I am voting Labour.

    Corbyn is 70, so is not going to be around for the long term. On the other hand Brexit will be pretty much irreversible as the EU won’t be in the mood to re-open entry negotiations after this saga. It is vital that everyone votes tactically to stop the Tories.

  • “Whatever happens on Thursday there needs to be some serious attempts to deal with a press that it a servant of multimillionaire proprietors, most of whom don’t live in the UK…………”
    If Johnson gets anywhere near number 10 again, this – and all the other reforms so desperately needed will never get through; quite the reverse he will close down all areas that have mounted a defence against his blatant gerrymandering.