As if anyone still needed proof of the matter, Donald Trump’s decision to pull the US out of the Iran nuclear deal and reimpose sweeping economic sanctions shows that the White House incumbent is a foreign policy pyromaniac.
His move seems certain to empower the hardliners in the Iranian regime and increase the risk of conflict in the Middle East. It undermines efforts to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons – including his own attempts to denuclearise North Korea – and raises the prospect once again of a nuclear arms race between Iran, Israel and the Arab states of the Gulf.
It is also a grievous blow to the Atlantic alliance, because his decision was taken in defiance of the passionate pleading of the UK, Germany, France and the rest of the EU. He ignored the personal interventions of Emmanuel Macron, Angela Merkel and even Theresa May (on the telephone) – although she merely sent Boris Johnson to plead her case in Washington.
Though Russia and China are also signatories to the deal with Iran, the 2015 agreement was always seen as the single most important achievement of EU common foreign and security policy. The negotiations were chaired by the EU high representative, and the EU-3 did most of the heavy lifting to persuade Tehran and Washington to bury their differences. Vladimir Putin, reinstalled for a fourth term in the Kremlin, will not be too distressed to see such a clear demonstration of division in the transatlantic relationship.
Demand a vote on the Brexit deal
Click here to find out moreAlthough some Brexiters may well be delighted to see such a setback for EU foreign policy, the real lesson of President Trump’s latest tantrum is as a grim warning of how weak a post-Brexit UK government will be when it seeks to influence US policy on its own.
It was clear from the diplomatic lobbying of the past weeks that the EU leader accorded the greatest attention in the White House was France’s President Macron. The second was Germany’s Chancellor Merkel. Boris Johnson’s belated trip to Washington, when the best he could do was talk to Trump via an interview on Fox TV, was depressing confirmation that the prospect of Brexit is already taking its toll on British influence.
The EU and Iran have already held a first meeting to see if the agreement can be rescued, in spite of the US withdrawal. It is hugely in Hassan Rouhani’s interests to do so, as the leading proponent of the treaty in Tehran. The Iranian president is now facing a wave of hard-line criticism for daring to trust the US. But Trump’s threat to reintroduce “the highest level of economic sanctions” seems certain to halt the rapid revival of EU-Iranian trade in its tracks.
Contingency plans are already under way in Brussels to protect EU exports from US sanctions. EU trade with Iran has more than tripled from the pre-deal low of €6.2bn in 2013 to more than €21bn last year. One of the biggest EU exporters is Airbus, which signed contracts for 100 aircraft in 2016, for which the wings are currently manufactured in the UK. Airbus seems certain to be hit by US sanctions, as will Boeing, because some parts come from US suppliers.
Royal Dutch Shell has signed initial agreements to invest in Iran’s energy sector since the 2015 deal, and Unilever is a major supplier of consumer goods. But after Brexit, who will be bothered to speak up for British exports to the man in the White House? Is the best we can hope for to send Boris Johnson again – or maybe Liam Fox next time – to plead with him via his favourite TV show, Fox and Friends? It beggars belief.
Edited by Luke Lythgoe
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