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Redwood wrong on Brexit savings and trade damage

by Sam Ashworth-Hayes | 22.03.2016

John Redwood promised the British people a “Brexit dividend” if we quit the EU. The Tory MP and vice president of Conservatives for Britain, also assured them in an interview with the BBC Today Programme, that “our trade is not at risk”. Both remarks are Project Fantasy.

Redwood says a post-Brexit government could fund “all the farmers and universities and others getting European money”, but get back the “ten thousand million” Brussels keeps.

Redwood’s figures don’t include EU grants to the private sector, which includes the money sent to our universities. They also omit EU spending we count towards our foreign aid target. Redwood told InFacts a future government could drop the aid target, so it should count as a saving.

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Even if one thinks a post-Brexit government would scrap its aid target, our net contribution is £7.1 billion. But the government is unlikely to see any of that money because Brexit would probably damage the economy. That in turn could mean a drop in tax revenues, causing the deficit to widen not shrink.

Redwood thinks there won’t be such economic damage because “our trade is not at risk”. He told the BBC that the EU “sells us much more than we sell them.” But Britain’s exports to the EU represent 13% of our GDP, while the EU’s exports to us represent just 3% of their GDP. That is just one reason why the argument that the EU needs the UK more than we need it is flawed.

This article was updated on March 29 to correct an error; UK exports to the EU are worth 13% of UK GDP, not 12%

Edited by Hugo Dixon

3 Responses to “Redwood wrong on Brexit savings and trade damage”

  • The greatest fear word is ‘COULD’. It is now used continually in the fear campaign by the Europhiles. Could this and Could that is the word of the day, but could does not mean ‘WOULD’. The fear campaign is based upon nothing more than hot air, as they do not know and make things up as they go along. For the biggest fear is staying in the EU long-term.

    Indeed, the so-called star political and economic players will play little part in the minds of the British people as they come to realise bit-by-bit for themselves that the political elite have not the answers. They never had if truth be told.

    But vested political interests always says anything to save their long term bacon and the steady-state of so-called success for the masters of the universe, the top 1%.

    But on the other side of the coin, over the next 20-years the EU has all the signs that it will implode. Then the ‘real’ disaster will happen, not Brexit that is hyped up with the fear from the top 1% orchestrating their usual vested-interests. Better to go now than unravel the meltdown of the European empire in future times and where at least when it comes, we shall be on the outside looking in. Indeed and although the fall-out will affect the global economy for decades, by the time it comes, we shall be far more resilient to weather the storm then, as our trade will be focused on the world economy outside the EU…’real’ free-trade and a breath of fresh air if ever there was any.

    Brexit – THREE’ of the Great Myths (and more) of staying ‘IN’ the EU Destroyed if the People of the United Kingdom Would simply Use Their Common-Sense and Read into the TRUTH – http://worldinnovationfoundation.blogspot.co.uk/2016/02/brexitgreat–threemyths–ofof–staying.html

    Brexit – The Truth Behind the EU’s Accounts and the Endemic Corruption that Supports a Non-Changing System of Economic Waste and Jobs for the ‘Boys’ – http://worldinnovationfoundation.blogspot.co.uk/2016/03/brexit-truth-behind-eus-accounts-and.html

    BREXIT – Switzerland Voting Not to Join the EU on 1 March 2016 is a Pointer to the British People What they Should do on 23 June 2016 – http://worldinnovationfoundation.blogspot.co.uk/2016/03/brexit-switzerland-voting-not-to-join.html

    Our future as a nation is definitely brighter outside the EU, as the long-term threat and not our opportunity is the EU, as disintegration is merely a matter of time now.