Analysis

Has May just opened way to a People’s Vote?

by Hugo Dixon | 15.10.2018
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If the prime minister can’t ram a deal through Parliament and won’t ask for an extension to the Brexit talks, what other option will there be but to ask the people what they want? When asked that question by Tory MP Heidi Allen today, Theresa May gave a slightly surprising answer. Rather than rejecting a People’s Vote outright (her normal response), she said the House of Commons would then decide what to do.

This, of course, is factually correct. Parliament, not the prime minister, is sovereign.

But May’s words, which could be a slip of tongue, could also suggest she realises how boxed in she is. With rebels encroaching from all sides, her chance of getting MPs to agree any deal is minimal. A People’s Vote could be her only way out.

May’s negotiations are in a mess because her miserable proposal – to keep the whole country in a customs union indefinitely while keeping Northern Ireland in parts of the single market too – is being attacked from all sides.

Patriotic pro-Europeans don’t like the idea of following the EU’s rules without a say on them while pulling Great Britain out of the single market and having a different regime for Northern Ireland. It would undermine our power, prosperity and peace. Labour is twisting the knife by asking the government to publish the detail of what it is proposing.

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But the prime minister’s immediate problem is the Cabinet. Several ministers – especially Andrea Leadsom, Penny Mordaunt and Esther McVey – are close to resigning. If it was only these three, the prime minister might be able to shrug off the rebellion. But Chris Grayling and Liam Fox and maybe even Dominic Raab will join the trio this evening to plot their next move in Leadsom’s office in the House of Commons, according to The Times.

These ministers want an end date for the government’s proposal to stay in the customs union. The problem is that this is a central part of May’s version of the so-called Irish backstop, which is supposed to avoid a land border in Ireland in all circumstances – and the EU says the backstop can’t have an end date.

As if that’s not bad enough, the prime minister now has a Scottish rebellion to contend with. Ruth Davidson, leader of the Scottish Conservatives, and David Mundell, the Scotland secretary, have written her a letter saying they would not accept Northern Ireland being treated differently than the rest of the UK in any Brexit deal. May can’t afford to lose the support of the 13 Scottish Tory MPs. Nor can she risk a rebellion by pro-union English Tories, such as Hugo Swire, who warned at the weekend: “I won’t vote for anything that weakens Northern Ireland within the Union.”

And then, of course, there are the continuing complaints about the backstop from the DUP, whose 10 MPs prop up the government and who are warning that their threat to vote against the government is not a bluff. Meanwhile, the Tory Brextremists outside the Cabinet such as David Davis and Boris Johnson are getting increasingly apoplectic.

There are now no more talks planned before this week’s summit – and the other countries are considering using a special Brexit summit on November 17/18 to prepare for the breakdown of talks rather than to clinch a deal.

In the House of Commons this afternoon, the prime minister revealed that the EU thinks there will not be time to nail down the details of her proposal to keep the whole country in the customs union in the next few weeks. So there could have to be a “backstop to the backstop”. She also refused to guarantee that the backstop would end in December 2021.

It’s far from clear what May will do. But if she does reach a deal and Parliament votes it down, the only sensible course of action will be to ask the people whether they agree. If you agree, make sure you come to the People’s Vote March next Saturday – and bring your friends and family too.

This piece was updated after the prime minister’s statement in Parliament

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Tags: Categories: Brexit Negotiations

20 Responses to “Has May just opened way to a People’s Vote?”

  • What a total mess!

    Chequers was always a ridiculous proposal and the fact that TM has jumped to the EUs tune on the Irish border has made things even worse.
    I don’t get it – we have said that we will not introduce a hard border in Northern Ireland and the Irish have said they do not want a hard border in Ireland so with cooperation there should be no hard border, surely.
    Unfortunately Veradker and Coveney have decided to be goody goody Europeans and allowed the issue to be weaponised by the EU negotiators – shameful! It is now time to call there bluff and state ‘we will not introduce a hard border in Northern Ireland you can if you want too’ and get back to negotiating a free trade deal.

  • What an utter waste of time and effort! Most of our current crop of M.P.s continue to expose themselves as really ignorant or stupid. Their actions are not even beneficial to themselves! Surely May could resolve the situation in an instant by declaring a national emergency and cancelling Article 50 immediatley so that parliament could focus on the nose-diving economy, the NHS, Windrush, Grenfell, forein policy … Yemen, Saudi, Putin, Trump, China …. there’s so much to do and so little happening!! Meanwhile she could direct the Brexiteers to turn Dexu into a committee that was charged with putting forward a plan that was acceptable to themselves and then being sent to Europe to resolve it themselves. If in the unlikely event they came up with a realistic seperation plan then there should be a commitment to put the option of a referendum choice for the public between another submission of Article 50 with that plan or to remain in the EU.
    What spineless public representatives we have…. it makes one embarrassed to be British rather than proud! If May had the courage, she would be seen as the saviour of the country by most people rather than the bungler who threw everything away.

  • Peter,

    I agree it’s a mess but it’s not about ‘weaponising’ the issue. You cannot both honour the Good Friday agreement and leave the EU. They are incompatible. All these issues were conveniently ignored when Brexiters made all their fantasy promises pre-referendum. It never was going to be ‘the easiest in human history’.

    It’s nonsensical to believe any free trade deal the UK could negotiate is going to better than the one we have now. This is yet another Brexit fantasy.
    Watch this video from someone who has practical experience of negotiating trade deals for a lighthearted but sensible argument https://youtu.be/Sx4AF-3Rd44.

  • Peter, in your post uou fail to address the question of customs checks. These will have to be re-introduced if and when the UK leaves the EU and the customs union. The reason for this is because the UK will leave the EU and the customs, not because any other EU countries are pro-European, as you appear to suggest. They will have to be introduced by the UK as well as by the EU. This has nothing to do with the Common Travel Area between Ireland and the UK, which is an entirely separate issue.

  • Peter, the problem with the Irish border is that it effectively forms one part of a cycle. The sides are the borders between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland, between Northern Ireland and the rest of Britain, between the rest of Britain and the continental EU, and between the continental EU and the Irish Republic. If you want to introduce and control a regulatory difference along one of those sides, then you need to introduce a corresponding difference in another side (or a combination) to balance the cycle.
    The Good Friday Agreement, in effect, is a commitment to both sets of Unionists in Northern Ireland. It promises the Irish Unionists that the inter-Irish border will remain free of regulatory differences and controls, and it promises the British Unionists that the Irish Sea border will likewise be free of controls. So if we want to introduce differences between ‘mainland’ Britain and the continental EU, while maintaining the Good Friday agreement, then we would have to get the Irish to agree to implement the same differences, otherwise anything having difficulties entering the country across the Channel could simply go round and enter across the Irish Sea. If the Irish Republic chooses to stay level with the EU rather than following Britain’s lead, then any changes at the Channel border must be balanced by changes at the inter-Irish or Irish Sea borders, thus breaking Good Friday.
    Note that we already do that with regard to Immigration. Britain and Ireland have maintained a Common Travel Area, similar but separate from the continental EU’s Schengen area, for almost the entire time that they have been separate countries. This allows for an ‘invisible’ inter-Irish border, and allows both countries to concentrate their immigration controls on the relatively few routes onto the islands.
    So in a way, yes you could argue that it’s the Irish Republic’s fault for making problems with the Good Friday agreement. How dare they choose to stick with the European Union, rather than be forced into effectively rejoining the British Union for most policy purposes – and only a few years short of the centenary of their secession, too! Good luck selling that interpretation across the water.

  • Excellent analysis of the border problem Alex Scott – without a doubt the clearest explanation I’ve read. Thank you

  • Surely as we have different currencies and tax regimes with the republic then that must constitute a regulatory difference? That doesn’t seem to cause a problem at the border now. The new dynamic will be in terms of trade and as both sides have stressed they do not want a hard border then surely cooperation between the two sides would be viable to make customs checks away from the border. Also as far as I was aware the EU effectively had nothing to do with the good Friday agreement as it was a deal done between the parties in Northern Ireland, Ireland and the UK.
    All I read on this site is EU zealots continually doing the EUs bidding and never being anything other than negative. I was one of those who strongly believed that Scotland coming out of the union was a bad idea but also strongly believed that in the medium to long term they would have been ok as an independent country as long as that was what the majority wanted – just like Brexit will be.
    Oh and the idea of Ireland being forced to re-join the British Union is just plain silly and you know it.

  • @Peter

    LOL
    show us more of your inner mind.

    if there is one constant in this universe, is that when trolls and bigots congregates on the internet, all they end up spouting is their ignorance of the real world.

    if only having politicians saying one thing could be enough to erase all the wrongs in the world. Alas ! things aren’t so easy.
    the core problem of the Brexiteer wishy-washy project fantasy is that they can’t accept not being served free cakes with extra cherries whenever they start another shouty tantrum.

    from the UK government, saying that they don’t want a border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland is all fine and dandy. Except that there has been one since 1922. Oftentimes guarded by machinegun, tanks and patrol dogs.
    This stopped after the Maastricht Treaty, and especially the Good Friday agreement, for which you’ll learn something new today, the EU is one of the co-signatory and a guarantor (alongside the UK and US).
    so yes, it’s the EU’s business whether the Good Friday agreement is respected.

    next, the issue of the border is essentially twofold :
    1) how to control the flow of people between the EU (irish republic) and the UK (northern ireland). remember that empty Brexiteer’s slogan of “taking back control”. here is how we show your ignorance of the issue and irresponsible disregard of the consequences of your actions.

    2) how to check goods and services between the EU and the UK. Not only is it a legal requirement for every WTO members (of which the UK won’t be an autonomous one come March 29th 2019), but also one of security matters. Who want foreign suppliers to export false or faulty or unhygienic products onto your markets, with the risks it might lead to your own population ?
    currently those checks are made at the ports and airports of the island of Ireland. But by March 2019, the land border will also become a de facto border (again)

    to square that circle, as other posters have mentioned, either
    a) the UK stay in the EU custom area
    b) norther ireland stay in the UK custom area (with only port and airport check as of today, but more intensively)
    c) ireland leave the EU custom area and join the UK (can’t remember any irish general election or referendum advocating it, so forget it).

    since option a) and b) are the only real, practical options for a “no border” in Ireland, make your choice. anything else is just wishy-washy, ignorant bigotry waffle.

    of course, the British government might also be talking from their arse (as has been the case for several years now), and they actually want a hard border be erected again on the island of Ireland, in which case breaking the Good Friday agreement.
    Perfidious Albion on the arch again. Wouldn’t be the first time. Been quite often in the past 2 decades already …

    so, here you have it.
    make your choice. but there are no free cakes with extra cherries.
    and neither do your simian bunch deserves respect or sympathy.

  • @Starbuck

    Now that’s a proper shouty tantrum!!!!!

    Just deal with the fact that you lost the referendum. I would like to find solutions that would be palatable to all, you just want to put every obstacle in the way of this country actually leaving the EU.

    Simian………LOL!

  • Just one other point. I cannot find any info relating to the EU being a co-signatory to the good Friday agreement. Not saying you’re wrong but it was still an agreement between the British and Irish governments as well as the Northern Ireland parties. The EU had nothing to do with the agreement.

  • Peter. The EU was not a signatory to the Good Friday Agreement. The U.K., Eire and Northern Ireland were. However the framework of EU membership of both the U.K. and Eire made it possible since within the EU there are no hard borders. The important point now is that the U.K. seems to want to unilaterally repudiate the Good Friday Agreement. In the past Eire would just have been bullied into submission by the U.K. Now with the EU on its side, Eire is in a stronger position than the U.K. If we want any kind of trade deal with the EU agreeing a backstop is essential. By the way you might want to ponder the similar problem for Gibraltar created by Brexit.

  • none are more deaf than those who refuse to listen
    apt description of internet trolls
    it took me 5s googling to get to this :

    https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201617/ldselect/ldeucom/76/7607.htm

    The International Agreement between the British and Irish Governments underpinning the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement expresses the two nations’ intentions as follows: “Wishing to develop still further the unique relationship between their peoples and the close co-operation between their countries as friendly neighbours and as partners in the European Union”.

    The Agreement itself contains a number of references to the EU, including, at paragraph 31 of Strand One (the status and system of government of Northern Ireland within the United Kingdom), that “terms will be agreed between appropriate Assembly representatives and the Government of the United Kingdom to ensure effective co-ordination and input by Ministers to national policy-making, including on EU issues”.

    Paragraph 3 of Strand Two (the relationship of Northern Ireland with the Republic of Ireland) states that the North/South Ministerial Council will meet “in an appropriate format to consider institutional or cross-sectoral matters (including in relation to the EU) and to resolve disagreement”. Paragraph 17 states that the North/ South Ministerial Council is “to consider the European Union dimension of relevant matters, including the implementation of EU policies and programmes and proposals under consideration in the EU framework. Arrangements to be made to ensure that the views of the Council are taken into account and represented appropriately at relevant EU meetings.” The Annex to Strand Two states that areas for North-South cooperation and implementation may include “relevant EU programmes such as SPPR, INTERREG, Leader II and their successors”.

    Strand Three (the relationship between the Republic of Ireland and the United Kingdom) states that suitable issues for early discussion in the British Irish Council could include “approaches to EU issues”.

    The Agreement also contains references to the European Convention on Human Rights, which is cited as a safeguard to ensure all sections of the community can participate and work together successfully. It establishes, for instance, “Arrangements to provide that key decisions and legislation are proofed to ensure that they do not infringe the ECHR and any Bill of Rights for Northern Ireland”. The Agreement further states that if the courts find such arrangements to have been breached by devolved legislation, then the legislation would be rendered null and void.

    Paragraph 2 of the section on rights, safeguards and equality of opportunity states that “the British Government will complete incorporation into Northern Ireland law of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), with direct access to the courts, and remedies for breach of the Convention, including power for the courts to overrule Assembly legislation on grounds of inconsistency”. It states in paragraph 4 that the new Northern Ireland Human Rights Commission will be invited to consult and advise on the scope for defining in legislation rights supplementary to those in the European Convention on Human Rights to reflect the particular circumstances of Northern Ireland.

  • technically, the signatories are the representatives of the party leaders of the unionists and sin feinn f northern ireland, prime minister of UK and Republic of ireland.
    the UK and RoI being members of the EU, and specific mentions of the EU in the agreement makes the institutions of the European Union a de facto co-signatory.
    this reinforced by the active role the EU has taken in making sure the agreement is both implemented and sustained in good faith ever since its birth.
    just like the US has had a diplomatic and political factor in grandfathering the agreement by putting pressure on the UK side

  • Mr. Peter (above) descibing Veradker and Coveney have decided to be ‘goody goody Europeans’ is the core of the negotiations problem. They are not ‘goody goody’ anything, they are simply behaving like normal, sane people in what has become the madhouse of Britain today. Repeating the same offer over and over again with very small tweeks has been the (non) strategy of May and the rabid core of Brexit supporters. Egged on by Dakre and Murdoch in a press that distorts the truth or lies outright, these minority group(s) are driving us into the cliff edge position. Any solution then will be made in desperation and will, no doubt, be a bad one.

    What the heck is Corbyn playing at? Is he playing some game of politics that only he and a few silent colleagues know about? He must know, surely, that the best and only good solution is to remain in the EU and rebuild a broken UK from a position of security. Please help him to arrive at this decision and make himself a place in history as a saviour of Britain in its darkest hour for nearly a century.

  • Starbuck,

    interesting reading and well researched which leads me to believe you are part of the legal profession?
    It also suggests to me that there is no reason that all the parties cannot come together to reach a sensible conclusion to protect the good Friday agreement and issues around keeping an open border, even if that needs a defined period of time to arrange. You mention the ECHR but as far as I am aware there is no suggestion of the UK pulling out of this agreement (although I personally would like to as it allows lawyers to overturn democratic decisions) so it is not even part of the equation.
    I also don’t remember Ireland joining the Euro as causing any border issues even though they joined after the good Friday agreement.
    To conclude I have not seen any substantial reason why an agreement cannot be achieved and it is obvious to me that this issue is very much being used by ardent remainers to force us to stay in. Feels like being trapped in a cave!

  • Peter,
    Maybe, sorry I didn’t research my comment very well would have been a more suitable reply to Starbuck, rather than trying to take the discussion down another cul-de-sac. The parties directly involved don’t see things through ‘we must leave at any cost’ sunglasses. Why should they? The Leave vote was won, as has been stated many times by deception, it was not a great triumph of democracy. Most MPs, economists, business leaders, civil servants etc. and an increasing number of the public know this to be the case. The case for Leave has been thoroughly lost. The only on going justification, which can be clung to is the will of the 17.4 Million people on 23rd June 2016 being somehow sacrosanct. I think people who now realise they were conned should be allowed to rethink their decision.

  • Although I try not to be rude to those with views different from mine, your ignorance (Peter) is breathtaking. Without a hard border between the UK and the EU on the island of Ireland, how would you prevent illegal immigration that Leavers keep on about and how would you prevent smuggling of goods? With a hard border to accentuate differences between north and south, how would you maintain the hard-won, but still fragile, peace between the communities in the north?

  • Is it really ignorant to want friendly neighbours to come to an agreement to prevent a return to historical problems in Northern Ireland. We want to honour the commitment to an open border but it is the EU that is refusing even to discuss potential electronic systems etc to achieve that outcome and use it for political leverage. In that case it will be the EU (along with the Irish government) that will force a hard border and they will be responsible for any repercussions.
    Do you really hate our democracy that much that you continually side with the other party? Frankly I have now gone from feeling the EU is a failing organisation that we should leave to almost complete hatred of that organisation and the people who represent it. They remind me of the school yard bullies that I used to fight.

  • Peter,
    There is presently no electronic solution to the Irish Border issue, and not likely to be anytime soon. Even if there was the cost of such a system and a host of others Brexit would incur is another inconvenient fact of life ignored by its supporters. You have left us in no doubt you want Brexit. OK that’s your democratic right which you are entitled to. Others have changed their minds which you can research if you wish. That’s democracy.

    I recommend you take a look at the article at the link below as John Major puts the falsehood of Brexit very clearly.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/16/false-promises-brexit-john-major