Anna Soubry, minister for small business, engaged in a spot of unintentional scaremongering on BBC’s “Any Questions”. If we leave the EU, she said, our exports to the continent will fall to “almost absolutely zero”.
Soubry has since told InFacts that she “may not have chosen the right words to express my concerns. I meant to say there would be great uncertainty about our future exports to the EU if we vote to leave”.
If the UK quits the EU, barring any unforeseen catastrophes, the worst case scenario is trade taking place under World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules.
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The WTO limits the extent to which the EU could put tariffs on UK goods post-Brexit. While it doesn’t do a great deal to alleviate non-tariff barriers, or indeed service industries like finance, it does present a realistic alternative model for trade. The US, Japan and China, to name just three nations, export to the EU under WTO rules. There is no realistic scenario under which our exports would fall to zero.
On the other hand, if Soubry had said what she now says she meant – that the future of our exports would be uncertain – she would have been correct. Until the Leave camp spells out what relationship it wants with the EU, Brexit is a leap in the dark.
Edited by Hugo Dixon
It’s the non-tariff barrier to trade that are likely to be the killer for small businesses. I live in France and buy quite a lot of stuff from the UK via abebooks, ebay, amazon marketplace etc. This summer I had a taste of what will happen post-Brexit — a gift of a book from a US friend, on which I had to pay €9 VAT, and a book and two DVDs from New Zealand on which I had to pay €4 VAT. It wasn’t the VAT I objected to, it was the €15 and €21 collection charges levied by the post office. If I have to pay €15-21 collection charges on every purchase from the UK (and any gifts!) I certainly won’t be buying much from Britain in the future.