The Withdrawal Bill, which comes back to Parliament in two weeks, is in crisis. The legislation is the government’s mechanism for ensuring continuity after Brexit by copying EU laws into British law. This intention is in real danger, because the government has lost control over the debate. There are six reasons why this has happened.
No meaningful vote
When Article 50 was triggered, MPs and peers got an assurance from ministers they would get a “meaningful vote” on the outcome of the UK-EU negotiations. They are now anxious that this promise might be broken or the vote left so late that MPs would be forced to choose between leaving the EU without agreement or accepting bad deal. They want the Bill amended to ensure that there is a vote in good time. Brexit Secretary David Davis’ gaffe last week in which he suggested there might not be time for a vote before Brexit reinforced MPs’ concerns.
The Times said today the government would concede that new legislation was needed to bring the Brexit deal into law. If so, this may calm Parliament’s concerns.
Henry VIII clauses
Parliament hates giving the government too much power. By allowing ministers to significantly amend the law without parliament’s effective consent through an alternative procedure – so-called “Henry VIII” clauses – the Bill provokes many more MPs and peers than just Remainers.
Tory Remainers alienated
Constant appeals by Theresa May to Brexiters have angered Tory Remainers. As they see it, the Brexit extremists are being rewarded yet again, despite the fact that they cling to lies told in the referendum like the £350 million a week. Tory Remainers say that the prime minister cannot reach an agreement which will satisfy Brexiters because their demands are wholly unrealistic.
No transition deal
The Bill makes no provision for transitional arrangements after we leave the EU, despite this being official government policy. Indeed, the Bill’s insistence that the European Court of Justice will have no jurisdiction in the UK after March 2019 would make reaching agreement with the other EU countries on any serious transitional arrangements quite impossible. Brexit junior minister Steve Baker has now suggested that another government Bill will be needed to enact transitional arrangements but this just raises more questions about the Withdrawal Bill.
No deal not ruled out
Continuing to say we might crash out of the EU with no deal is goading Remainers in both Houses of Parliament. Ministers insist that to be effective in negotiations with the EU the UK needs to keep the notion that it could walk away without agreement if the EU does not offer reasonable terms. The trouble is that this is the hollowest of threats. Leaving without a deal would be very damaging to the UK economy.
Human rights
Labour MPs, in particular, want to amend the Bill so that the EU’s Charter of Fundamental Rights applies after Brexit. This may sound rather technical, and in a sense it is, but government’s limited political capital is running down before the Bill has even reached Committee Stage and conceding this would be anathema to the Tory Brexiters.
Both Tory backbenchers and Labour frontbenchers want the Bill drastically amended. If they work together, and the SNP and the Lib Dems support them (which they will), the government will be defeated. There are signs that the government is preparing for a climbdown. But if it doesn’t – or if its concessions aren’t adequate – it will get into even hotter water.
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This article was updated shortly after publication to include the Times report on new legislation for the Brexit deal.
Edited by Hugo Dixon
Over and over we hear that ‘the British people voted for BREXIT’ when in reality they were duped, misled, conned, deceived. The idea that BREXIT will lead to Saving anything is ludicrous. To put BREXITERS in charge of negotiations is enough to aggravate all 27 countries. Alice in Wonderland has nothing to compare with the madness of these politicians. They are almost all MAD Hatters !
You drew our attention to six reasons why the EU withdrawal bill is in trouble but Northern Ireland was never mentioned.