Boris Johnson has posed 5 questions for David Cameron, mainly on migration and European integration, which InFacts is answering separately. But the Leave camp is faced by even trickier ones. Here are 6 questions voters needs answers to as the referendum campaign moves into its final 6 weeks.
Do you want to break up the EU?
This is one of Michael Gove’s ambitions. Vote Leave’s campaign chair hopes Brexit will lead to the “liberation” of Europe. After all, if the EU is really so terrible that we should leave, so should other countries. On the other hand, dismembering the EU would create economic mayhem in our backyard and leave Europe open to Russian mischief-making. The mere act of stating this as our goal will make our divorce bloody.
Should we blackmail the EU until it give us what we want?
Another of Gove’s bright ideas. He thinks we hold “all the cards” if we vote to Leave. But the threat would backfire horribly. The other EU countries would form a united front against us and be even less willing to give us good exit terms.
Would Albania be a good model for Britain?
Yet another Gove scheme. The snag is that Albania doesn’t have a “passport” for its financial services industry and has only limited access for services. Given that services account for about four fifths of our economy, this wouldn’t be a good model. What’s more, Albania was only able to get its limited access because it hopes one day to join the EU.
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Are you relaxed about eliminating our manufacturing industry?
Patrick Minford, a member of the pro-Leave Gang of Eight economists, wrote in The Sun in March that: “Over time, if we left the EU, it seems likely that we would mostly eliminate manufacturing, leaving mainly industries such as design, marketing and hi-tech. But this shouldn’t scare us.”
Will you close the Irish border?
Nigel Lawson said the Irish border would probably have to be closed post-Brexit. Otherwise, EU citizens would hop over from the Republic of Ireland, knocking a hole in the Brexiteers’ plan to end free movement of people. Theresa Villiers, the Northern Ireland secretary who also backs Leave, said Lawson got it wrong. She said illegal EU migrants would be dealt with by the authorities. Forget for a moment that we are not good at tracking down illegal migrants. Even if we caught them and sent them home, all they’d need to do is jump on a plane to Dublin and cross the open border again to re-enter the UK.
Will you introduce visas for EU citizens?
Dominic Raab, the pro-Leave justice minister, has floated the idea of requiring visas from EU citizens after Brexit as a way of tightening up security. Such a move would hurt our economy, gum up tourism and almost certainly lead to visa requirements being imposed on Brits travelling to Europe in a tit-for-tat response. It would add little protection against terrorists coming from the EU, since we’d still need intelligence on who was trying to get into Britain and our former partners are more likely to have that than us.
The internal logic of Brexiteers’ positions should force them to give the answer “yes” to these questions. But if they come out and say “yes,” it’s doubtful that the voters would support them.
Hugo Dixon is the author of The In/Out Question: Why Britain should stay in the EU and fight to make it better. Available here for £5 (paperback), £2.50 (e-book)
Edited by Sebastian Mallaby
Infacts talks a lot about how important the export of financial services is to the UK economy and how these could be adversely affected post-Brexit, especially if WTO rules apply. The problem is I don’t understand how ‘financial services’ generate income for the UK. Please explain!
If you think of financial services less as an export and more as competition in other markets for their domestic providers then maybe that will help. Financial services might mean, say, selling an insurance premium to a Romanian or offering a loan to a Frenchman. These activities have a built in profit margin just as they would if sold to a UK customer. But it might also mean processing a financial transaction and getting a cut of it for a business deal, offering a mortgage to a Danish company. As our banks currently have a passport to operate across the entire EU they can easily compete with the relevant national financial institutions in each country to offer more favourable terms. Does this help clarify?
Answer for 6 awkward questions for brexiteers by a brexiter.
1. It varys from individual opinion really some want to just wish luck and leave with no mess and continue mutrally some hope for reforms to improve the situation amongst other EU states and some (including myself) hope for a complete break up. My personal reason why is because I liken the EU to a Spanish inquisition or a new version of a HRE (holy Roman empire) that stifles nations progress for the gain of the few. In my opinion it is NATO that has kept peace since 1946 onwards the EU is trying to hijack that record. It is undemocratic to have unelected leaders who are unaccountable to anyone. I would hope post EU we can arrange a mutral agreement with europian nations based on respect for national laws, cultures and economies.
2. The role that Britain plays in the EU is contributor, we pay more than we get back and again my opinion we get very little in return for this “priveledge” so I believe we should twist arms to get better terms. The sad thing is that we have to fight to get changes we need yet we keep getting told by partners in the EU we are appricated yet this does not seem to be the case as we are consistently ignored over 500 proposals passed to EU paliment by British MEPs (some good some bad) each and every one rejected.
3. Admittedly I don’t know much about the “Albanian option” I’ll have to look into it but if it’s just the case for no access to financial services then it sounds like a silly option in a way. However British financial services are one of the biggest in the world and I would argue the case that Europe needs our financial services more than we need theirs so maybe a mutral agreement could be made should brexit happen.
4. Is a very difficult question to answer due to no one really knows what will happen lost brexit if this does occur then I would be very sad about it. Manufacturing has been an important part of British industry maybe another brexiter has a better insight than I do on this matter but I would like to believe we will be fine post brexit.
5. I suppose we will have to close Irish borders should we leave the EU although an agreement could very easally be reached with our friendly neibours during the period we negotiate our break. It’s not as if we vote leave on the 23 June we will come out of the EU next day. A period of 2 years will be given for the EU and UK to negotiate the break up including new trade agreements.
6. It all depends on how negotiations go and what kind of trade deal we can negotiate with the EU. Weather it’s a norweigan/switzland agreement or something else entirely although I would like to see EU members require checks before entry this in either event seems unlikely for the reasons you put in the question.
Hope this helps to clarify a brexiters mindset lol
6 Answers.
Question 1: Would you want to break up the EU?
I would. Whereas the co-operating nation states model of the EEC was a force for peace, the integrated single state model of the EU acts in the opposite direction. This is true both internally and externally.
Internally the EU sees Greeks demonstrating with banners conflating the German chancellor with Herr Hitler – is that part of creating “an ever closer union among the peoples of Europe”? In the UK pollsters tell us about 50% of the public are against EU membership, under the EEC co-operating states model that never topped 20%.
Externally, the EU is designed to become a thermo nuclear armed superstate on the western border of thermo nuclear armed Russia… a country which has been invaded from the west twice in the last 100 years. This is particularly threatening for them when members of the EU elite claim, in David Cameron’s words, a realm “stretching from the Atlantic to the Urals”.
All Leave wants to do is revert to the EEC co-operating states model.
That wasn’t an awkward question for a Leave supporter to answer, but clearly, given the answer, awkward for the Stay side. No doubt that’s why they identified it as such.
Question 2: Should we blackmail the EU until we get what we want?
How do negotiators negotiate? Recognising the potential downsides of destructive behaviour is how negotiation works. Do they never point out to the negative consequences of not consumating a deal?
But it shouldn’t be necessary if the EU negotiates with the UK in good faith… as they will. It would be a travesty to suggest that the EU comprises nasty people who will not approach leaving negotiations in a positive light.
The Leave side assume that the UK will be dealing with reasonable people who will respect democratic will, and who will try and do what is best for the future of Europe.
It’s the Stay supporters who view the EU elite as being vile, vicious and vindictive, and in need of being blackmailed to make them behave reasonably. If that’s the case, one begins to wonder why one Earth they wish to be ruled by such people.
The Leave side sees no reason to indulge in blackmail. That the Stay side does tells us much about their adversarial, dictatorial, outlook. It tells us that they consider the only way of doing business to be by force. Maybe that’s why they’ve called their campaign “Britain Stronger…” Their world view is all about power, compulsion, inposing their will on others, forcing others to comply, threatening others, scaring people. It is no coincidence that people with such an unpleasant outlook would back the unaccountable, authoritarian EU.
Awkward question?… again only for pro-EU persons… mainly due to (from their viewpoint) its inconvenient answer.
Question 3: Would Albania be a good role model for Britain?
Setting aside the insulting suggestion that Albanians are somehow inferior – a typically racist assumption from the Stay supporters, this is an irrelevancy.
The Leave side simply want to embrace the EEC co-opeating nation states model of European development, rather than the EU integrated single state model. So the appropriate question should be “Would membership of the EEC be a good role model for Britain?”
Question 4: Are you relaxed about eliminating our manufacturing industy?
Not as relaxed as Antony Charles Lynton Blair’s government was. A larger proportion of manufacturing as a % of GDP was lost under his government than was lost under Mrs. Thatcher’s… and he was in power after the EU was formed by the Maastricht Treaty.
We are told by the Stay side that should the UK leave the EU the value of Sterling would fall by 20%. That would be good for manufacturing industry as it would increase its competitiveness. It is the Leave side which promotes this boon to manufacturing industry and industrial jobs, it is the Stay side which wants to deny industry it.
Whatever an academic might or might not say, it is clear who is on the side of UK manufacturing… and it is not the Stay campaigners.
That was another question only awkward for the Stay supporters.
Question 5: Would you close the Irish border?
No.
Anyone who has ever travelled to and fro between Great Britain and Northern Ireland will be fully aware that the de facto border is already between those two places.
Question 6: Will you introduce visas for EU citizens?
Probably not. Visas weren’t needed to travel across Europe, this side of the Iron Curtain, before the UK joined the EEC, there is no particular reason why they would be needed after we left the EU and entered into some form of co-operation agreement with the EU.
But it is true that times change. Outside the EU, the UK would be free to adapt to any changed circumstances. If those circumstances compelled the introduction of visas, then the UK would be able to act under that compulsion… as opposed to being in the position of knowing what measures were needed, but being unable to implement them.
6 Questions only awkward for Stay campaigners, because the reasonable answers to them undermine the Stay side of the argument.
Game set and match……….you answered those questions better than I could infact you smashed it well done :p
The above replies answer perfectly the ridiculous questions pose by the in campaign.
Everything they spout and write is designed to instill fear into those thinking of voting for bexit. In truth a lot of what they say if not all, cannot be substantiated with facts.
I am not a racists, I live in Spain but it’s quite clear that all the services that are cherished in the UK are under extreme pressure. Once the EU membership is extended to Turkey and the Baltic states, this will only perpetuate the decline in those services. We really need to be able to control immigration into the UK.
As for the question of visas and I include the possibility of ex-pats being repatriated to the home country, I don’t believe it will happen. The ex-pat community contribute greatly to the economies in the countries where they live. This is particularly the case in Spain and there is no doubt that if all English ex-pats were sent packing the Spanish economy would suffer badly.