The vocabulary of Brexit in the British media is beginning to go beyond the ‘soft’, ‘hard’, ‘cliff-edge’ and ‘no deal’ varieties, to include a ‘scrap-it’ Brexit. The tide of opinion may at last be turning. So, in the hope of encouraging this trend and giving readers something to reflect upon during their August holidays, here is a list of the main political errors and unforeseen or undisclosed costs that form the case for scrapping Brexit, abbreviated from a paper I recently published for the Centre for European Policy Studies (see footnote).
- The normal precaution in democracies worldwide of requiring a ‘constitutional majority’ (i.e. around two-thirds) for constitutional change was ignored.
- Before the referendum took place, it was characterised as “legally advisory”, but immediately afterwards the result became “politically binding”.
- The referendum posed an imbalanced choice between the known status quo and the unknown. The government still cannot say what it wants, even less what it might get.
- The referendum campaign was marred by outright lies on the part of the Brexiteers, from the £350 million per week for the NHS, to the warnings of millions of Turkish immigrants.
- When Leave voters were asked what they would think if they would be worse off after exiting the EU, the switch in positions would have resulted in a 10% majority to remain.
- David Cameron’s review of the workings of the EU showed that its competences were soundly chosen and that there were therefore no grounds for repatriating them.
- He ignored these findings, however, and proceeded to demand radical reform of the EU, but was not able to define what this reform would consist of in operational terms.
- As a result, Cameron’s renegotiation package lacked content, undermining the credibility of his recommendation to remain.
- Theresa May’s government walked itself into an extraordinarily weak bargaining position, by triggering the Article 50 procedure before agreeing its objectives internally.
- The Prime Minister has just offered slogans, ranging from the meaningless “Brexit means Brexit”, to the potentially catastrophic “No deal is better than a bad deal”.
- The February 2017 White Paper was contradictory: the UK will leave both the single market and the customs union, but still seeks “seamless, frictionless free trade”, characteristics available only by virtue of the single market and the customs union.
- Statements that the UK would stop making big payments to the EU budget are now corrected by the recognition that the UK has obligations to make a financial settlement with the EU.
- The car industry has stopped investing in the UK. Airbus is considering relocating its UK operation. Some 40% of UK enterprises say Brexit is negatively affecting their investment plans.
- The financial services sector sees widespread evidence of planned re-location out of London, in favour of Paris, Frankfurt, Dublin, Amsterdam and Luxembourg.
- Net immigration from the EU has already fallen substantially, as the ‘not welcome’ sign has its effect, dropping in the course of 2016 to close to zero
- The UK’s leading place in Europe in the IT sector is dependent on high-skilled personnel from the continent, and this thriving sector is now at risk.
- The Royal College of Nursing reporting “a staggering drop” in arrivals of EU nurses (by 96%), threatening the functioning of the National Health Service.
- The British fruit industry warn that a shortage of EU immigrant workers threatens their future, given that 95% of its seasonal labour has been coming from other EU countries.
- UK universities are seriously concerned about losing academic staff from the continent as well as falling enrolment.
- The dropping of UK research institutions out of EU-funded networks and projects threatens the UK’s leading position in European scientific research.
- The prospect of leaving Euratom raises serious doubts about the adequacy of the UK’s nuclear safety inspection skills.
- Withdrawal from many EU technical agencies will mean new costs of bureaucracy to replicate many of these agencies at the UK level.
- The European Medicines Agency and European Banking Financial Authority currently in London plan to move to the continent, with over a thousand job losses.
- EasyJet is moving its headquarters to Austria. Ryanair notes that the European open sky arrangements depend on the jurisdiction of the Court of Justice of the European Union.
- Quitting the single market will mean bringing back roaming charges for mobile phones.
- Quitting the single market will mean the imposition of restrictive quotas on UK trucks entering the EU.
- Quitting the single market will mean that when an orchestra tours from the UK to the continent, losing access to the posted workers directive, …“a tour goes from breaking even to making a loss”.
- Withdrawal from the European Arrest Warrant will mean an end to the fast extradition of suspected criminals, including suspected terrorists.
- Customs experts warn about the prospect of huge queues of trucks and bottlenecks at UK ports.
- Macroeconomic trends: the depreciation of the pound has already cut into real incomes by raising the inflation rate, and with the stalling of investment, the economy is heading back into stagflation.
- The idea that the UK can compensate for the loss of full access to the EU market with free trade deals elsewhere in the world is seen by trade experts to be an illusion.
- There is little or no prospect of a good outcome to the Article 50 negotiations. Senior EU representatives, from Juncker to Barnier, warn that there is ”no good Brexit”.
- The United Kingdom as a society is itself more deeply and bitterly divided than ever before. The continued integrity of the United Kingdom is at risk.
Observers on the continent and elsewhere in the developed world scratch their heads why this country should commit the biggest act of self-harm that any advanced democracy has ever voluntarily inflicted on itself.
Michael Emerson is a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies, where a version of this piece was originally published.
Edited by Bill Emmott
The covers many of the concerns that I have with what is happening. I also worry that we might actually see sense but discover we have to join the Euro to get back in !!
I didn’t vote to Leave and whilst I respect the result I don’t think that a 4% majority is really “the will of the people” for all time. There was a bigger swing in the last general election and we know that is only for 5 years – maximum.
As many have commented people don’t vote in referendums in regards to the question on the paper. Many voted against austerity, the rich, regulatory control and for the NHS. It deserves another vote at least now that the likely outcomes are becoming clearer and especially, finally when we find out what our politicians have managed to achieve. We know that many will stand down at the next election so that the fallout lands on the next incumbents.
I work for a business within the financial services industry that is already planning to relocate jobs to European cities. They aren’t advertising the fact, it’s part of their business strategy now and people will find out when the jobs are gone.
The EU requires work, but if you aren’t happy you are much better fighting from within then standing at the door shouting.
Mostly I feel sorry for the younger generation. The older were more likely to vote but in 10, 20, 30 years time they won’t be about to deal with the fallout.
I try a consolidated reply to the above.
One comment is that the 33 arguments was incomplete, notably on geo-politcal grounds. I agree, and actually keep a file on additional arguments. When it reaches 50 or so I’ll do a second edition.
Another point is the wish of several commentators to see the equivalent list of the ‘leavers’, and to look at it. Yes, indeed, let’s see it in concrete terms beyond the general slogans taking back control etc.
About BMW. Indeed they announce assembly of the all-electric mini at their Oxford plant. But look at the detail there. BMW say it only requires a small investment for the assembly line to take in the electric motors/batteries supplied from the continent. This could fit in with the logic of Hammond’s long transition period. But then factor into BMW’s planning a clear decision to quit the customs union and uncertainty over a free trade deal and the story could become quite different down the road.
Going by what I heard in The Netherlands a few weeks ago a definite imposition of Schengen controls, acceptance of the Euro, ditching of the rebates M. Thatcher negotiated and a definite ditching of any urges for a replay of the very expensive issues of last year would be demanded if the U.K. Would want to stay in the EU. They would want to see serious commitment.
A splendid piece of work to identify all the harm that Brexit has or will do the UK. What is surprisingly absent from the 33 points identified by Mr Emerson are those relating to the geopolitical aspects of Brexit which never seem to be taken into consideration : namely the UK absence from the EU Council chamber when questions relating to the following are discussed and decided upon: the future of Europe and its organisation ( particularly relevant at the moment when the undemocratic tendencies of the Polish and Hungarian governments are raising questions as to their continued membership of the EU which is the protector of democratic governments in Europe ); foreign policy, security,environmental, migration problems etc. We must never forget why the movement for the unity of Europe was started in the first place; to create an unstoppable process of collaboration and cooperation , recognized in 2012 when the EU was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for reconciliation and peace over six decades.
I so agree with you, David Quinn. This is the aspect that is still largely ignored in all the noise, our shared responsibility to preserve and promote the values on which the EU was set up. Within a handful of years following the 1929/30 financial disasters Europe was at war. Within a similar handful of years of the 2008 financial crash here we are playing the disintegration card. Threats to democracy and the rule of law are very real in parts of the EU as in the US and elsewhere. Now is the very time when we should be cooperating to preserve and promote the democratic institutions and values so hard won in Europe and jointly working to tackle the problems facing the world. The emphasis should be on solidarity and our shared responsibility, not on division and disunity and self-obsession. The whole issue of Brexit is not just about trade and jobs and what we can get out of it or what a disaster it all is for us. This list of 33 points is great but can we add in a few on this deeper level?
Mr Emerson is not in favour of Brexit by the looks of it.
It would be just as easy to list loads of reasons and their explanations why Brexit should go ahead , and the sooner the better.
It has been decided – we are leaving the EU and the sooner the losers come to terms with it the sooner it can be completed and the country can move forward.
Go on then David, let’s see your list of reasons if it’s just as easy.
Would you like to do so then? I would be interested to see what you had to say and how you would counter the above points.
Mr Elder, you have offered a hostage there – let’s see YOUR list!
Are you saying that leaving the EU can’t go ahead unless ‘the losers come to terms with it’?
Suppose they do come to terms with it, and it is completed, and the country moves forward.
Where to?
If you can substantiate your assertion, please do so.
A decision based on lies and excluding people from voting who were likely to vote to stay in the EU. We’re still a democracy, so we can have another vote and choose to stay in.
Missed some clues as to a changing mood toward Brexit? Problem understanding that people’s thinking evolves over time and that opinions change as a result? It would be thoroughly undemocratic not to take that process in account, as yesterday’s “losers” will in all likelihood be tomorrow’s winners. Be prepared for some serious change in this area!
Unlucky for some (13) already kicked into touch today.
House of Cards comes to mind.
#OutOutOut
Really!! I think you need to read the BMW piece a little more closely.
Particularly this piece…
BMW has warned about the damage of Brexit uncertainty, and in May chief executive Harald Krueger said the company had to remain “flexible” about production facilities.
If there are tariff barriers, I’m sure when they need to retool for a new model, it wont spend the money in the UK.
I wish it would be different, but reality is vastly different to the hype.
A well written article as a self promotion by the author, a Remain voter. I have seen similar articles ,with longer lists, written by Leave voters. In all hypotheses it is possible to contridict and this seems to have become a National pastime, which shows the depths of the devision in all things EU.
I think that to solve the conflict we have to go back to the beginning. The lie started with Heath and Wilson, to be extended by the Majors and Blairs later, showing that both pilitical majorities within the UK are equally guilty of furthering the EU for their own agendas rather than those of the people.
If GB had continued along the path of Sovereignty it was following pre 1972 then we would still have had trade deals with European Countries as well as the rest of the World and the EU would still be in the mess it’s in today, but it wouldnt be in a position to involve GB in any of its antics.
To leave the EU is not to go back to 1972, but today get on with life the way it should have been for the past 45 years without Continental interference.
You write a lot and say little. Care to expand on how things might have been different, or how preceding governments have furthered the EU for their own agendas? Finally, would you care to refer us to these lists of benefits for Brexit? The ones that I have seen have been riddled with falsehoods and myths, but maybe you have seen more reliable ones?
Please publish these articles of which you speak. I am genuinely interested.
No use asking, just buy The Sun, the Daily Mail and The Express. Or listen to Nigel Farage on the radio. Serious articles that give decent insight in why it would be a good thing to leave the EU do not exist. Barry Gardiner came close, even if his points of departure and arguments floated on fake news a bit too much.
2 questions every citizen should ask themselves is: How have you suffered from a united Europe? and
How did your parents and grandparents suffer from a disunited Europe?
If the suffering in the first question is greater than in the second vote out. If the answer to the second is greater than the suffering in the second Vote remain
I have yet to see a single well argued benefit to the UK of leaving the EU, but there may be a few benefits for the EU. For example they will be rid of the frequent occasions when the UK has prevented stronger environmental, work, health and financial standards. It’s possible, but unlikely that the UK could negotiate a better carbon market outside the EU.
Can someone supply a benefit of leaving that isn’t just wishful thinking or an empty slogan?
Tedious speculation. Obvious desperate remainer. Just to take one example its obvious BMW havent listened to this gentleman they announced today investment in the British car industry. Most of the other “reasons” are either running over old ground where I was expecting something new. Also we have a situation where we are leaving and all this serves to play into the hands of the Euro negotiators who just play on these divisions.
Come on for goodness sake stop moaning and get on with it.. Most of the other “reasons” are fear that something might happen. After the vote armageddon, didnt happen afer article 50, Disaster. It hasnt happened. Dont forget we are not allowed to make our own trade deals in fact we are not allowed to…. Virtually decide on anything and all EU ideas are not good. They have nearly mansged to exterminate Cod in our waters, the common agriculture policy is built for the French farmer. Certainly not us. For goodness sake get off your butts and put as much into making Britain great as you do pulling her down and we will be more than succesful.
Oh dear how romantic! Strong and steady language always turns me on.
David Jones bears witness that Boris did not lie in vain
People who think we shall be better going it alone as before 1972 obviously have very short memories or are too young to be aware of our economic position then.
I am a very old man and remember it all well.
1) Our memories of world war 2 were still clear and the EEC as it was then would be a way of preventing future wars between European countries which was my principal reason for my support.
2) We still had the replacement of Imperial Preference by Commonwealth Preference with the same rules.
3) Because we were outside the EEC we set up the European Free Trade Association with European Countries outside the EEC.
Even with these were advantages we were still unable to make a go of it and the thought that all was rosy before we joined is wishful thinking,
Additionally when we joined the EEC we walked out on our Commonwealth friends much to their regret, particularly New Zealand and Australia whose economies were severely damaged and our Friends in EFTA. After such behaviour it is unlikely that these countries would give us favourable treatment without safeguards against our walking out on them again.
what really irritates me is the government assumes that there is a clear mandate for any particular policy. Whilst you can technically say there is a narrow mandate for leaving the EU (as that was the question) – it remains scandalous that the whole advisory side of things was brushed under the carpet – remember Farage was arguing that a narrow loss wouldn’t be valid either, till he won – there are absolutely no grounds to assume that the “will of the people” could be assumed to apply to anything specific. For example, who can say the will of the people is to close borders to migrants, just because it was one of the most vocal issues?
it’s all just the assumed will of some people, as convenient. Hence referenda can be disasters if misused.
Time to turn Boris’s water cannon on Brexit.
The devaluation of the pound means those just about managing before Brexit now will not manage.
I find the leading Brexiters are only concerned with their own career development.
If your wife is suicidal do you have to agree with her and go along with her to God knows where ?