Before triggering Article 50, Theresa May’s red lines were largely drawn by hard-Brexiters among her own party and the British press. Since kickstarting the Brexit process in earnest last week, a new set of red lines have been drawn in Brussels, with the European Parliament becoming the first EU institution to confirm its own, uncompromising, negotiating conditions. May must tread a path between both sets of lines if she is to succeed in the negotiations.
The European Parliament may be derided by Brexiters as a powerless talking shop, but its red lines are some guide to the likely approach of party colleagues in national capitals. More pertinently, any deal reached in the negotiations must have the consent of the parliament – and its president, Antonio Tajani, has made clear he considers a “no deal” scenario far more damaging for Britain than for the EU (listen at 04:10).
What’s more, negotiators on both sides should not underestimate the risk of the parliament vetoing the deal altogether if MEPs feel their views haven’t been properly taken into account. They have vetoed international agreements on these grounds before, and in doing so would almost certainly see the UK crash out without a deal.
The parliament has strengthened its red lines by tying them to the sequencing of the negotiations: first a withdrawal treaty, followed by a framework for future relations, with a transitional agreement to bridge the gap between Brexit and the new deal coming into force.
The prime minister’s letter says she wants to “agree the terms of our future partnership alongside those of our withdrawal”. But she can only begin doing that, says the European Parliament, once “substantial progress” has been made on the withdrawal agreement. This includes progress on: the legal status of EU citizens in the UK, the so-called “divorce” bill, the Irish border, and accepting the European Court of Justice (ECJ) as enforcer of the withdrawal agreement.
Throughout any transition period, the parliament adds, the ECJ must be “responsible for settling any legal challenges”. What’s more, if the UK wishes to retain access to the single market until a new trade deal is in place, it must continue to apply the EU’s four freedoms (including freedom of movement), plus “general budgetary contributions” and the EU’s common commercial policy – meaning restrictions on striking trade deals around the world.
The prime minister has become more careful in her language than a few months ago. Take her response to questions this week on immigration policy during a transitional period. Journalists made much of the way she ducked the issue of extending free movement beyond the Brexit date, saying only that Britain must “have control of our borders and control of our immigration … when we come out of the European Union”.
Expect more rhetorical fudges in the months to come as May attempts to keep the time-pressured negotiations on track while convincing Brexiters she isn’t selling their vision down the river.
For example, she will have to square her promise that the days of “vast contributions” to the EU budget have ended with the European Parliament’s insistence that the UK “must honour all its legal, financial and budgetary obligations … up to and after the date of its withdrawal” and that this includes “off-balance sheet items, contingent liabilities and other financial costs that arise directly as a result of its withdrawal”.
Will Brexiters accept this? Will they accept a transitional deal overseen by the ECJ, despite promises that Brexit would “bring an end” to the court’s jurisdiction in the UK? Theresa May must now perform a red-line tightrope walk, with collapsed negotiations and a ruinous no-deal scenario on one side and the wrath of Brexiter colleagues on the other.
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Edited by Paul Taylor
Basically then, this tragic farce remains a battle for power within the Tory Party, with the future of the nation being gambled by reckless and irresponsible politicians. There is no deal they can get, none whatsoever, which is better than the deal we have as a full member of the EU.
There is no deal the U.K. can get that is better than current arrangements and opt-outs! Simple. Anything else will cost the country, risks breaking up the country, and will make the people poorer. The Conservatives and particularly the current government have blown it!