Denis MacShane is the former Minister for Europe. He is author of Brexit: How Britain Left Europe (IB Tauris).
Madrid: There are hopes among Brexit fanatics that Spain can be separated from other more hardline EU nations as the different Brexit negotiations unfold. Spain runs a healthy trade surplus with Britain, is the most popular EU destination for British holidaymakers and has several hundred thousand expats living full- or part-time in the country. So, runs the Brexit argument, Spain will seek its own deal with the UK as Albion again plays its perfidious game of divide and rule.
Talking to Spanish politicians, government officials and European policy specialists in Madrid, there was no evidence to suggest that Spain will differ much in its approach to Brexit from other European nations. If anything, Britain leaving the EU means that Spain now becomes one of the bloc’s big four – after Germany, France and Italy.
Francois Hollande recently told the Spanish they were now one of the EU’s big players. Spain will also be attending an informal Brexit summit with Germany, France and Italy in Versailles on Monday – cementing its status as one of the big boys. French flattery goes down better than Brexit bluster.
Spain exports 15 times as much to France, Germany, Portugal, Italy and Benelux as it does to Britain. As nice as the UK market is for Spain, the EU 27 market is far more profitable.
Madrid will tuck in quietly behind Germany on the Article 50 negotiations. Once those are concluded Spain will stay in the centre of the pack on whatever future negotiations take place on trade access.
The expat question
There are 300,000 Brits who declare themselves to be permanently resident in Spain. UK embassy officials and Spanish experts reckon there could be several hundred thousand other Brits who own a property in Spain and spend part or most of the year in the country. There are an estimated 200,000 Spaniards living full- or part-time in Britain. Identifying, listing, and giving documents to everyone is a herculean task.
The Spanish love British universities and recognise the importance of English, while the prime minister sends his children to a British Council school. But they are a proud people and, if Theresa May brings in measures insisting that Spaniards coming to live in the UK must have special visas, there will be reciprocal moves from Spain. For example, every non-EU citizen in Spain has to pass a driving test – which includes a written test in Spanish. Given the language ability of many UK expats, some may find this a challenge.
The Rock in a hard place
Above all there is the problem of Gibraltar. As Europe minister, I helped negotiate a kind of peace deal in Madrid that allows direct flights to Gibraltar even though the airport landing strip is in disputed territory over which Spain claims sovereignty. If the UK leaves the EU Open Skies and other EU aviation agreements, there will have to be a bilateral deal between the UK and Spain on access to Gibraltar. The Spanish foreign minister makes clear that the issue of joint sovereignty will be on the agenda. This is unacceptable to Gibraltarians and British MPs but, if hard Brexit is what London seeks, it will be very hard indeed for the Rock.
In short, the idea that Spain is on the UK side of the table in any Brexit negotiations is far from the truth. Spain is part of the EU 27. Thirty years ago Spain joined the EU. If Brexit Britain opts for a full amputation from Europe the three decades of close amistad between Britain and Spain – the warmest relations for centuries – may soon belong to history.
Want more InFacts?
Click here to get the newsletter
This article was corrected to clarify that Gibraltar’s airport is located on disputed territory claimed by both Spain and the UK.
Edited by Hugo Dixon
The problem in the UK is that our politicians are talking complete and utter claptrap in the knowledge that they are never seriously challenged. They are leading the country into a disaster. As former PM Major said recently, the British public are being duped.
I do not agree with Mr MCShane former minister for Europe that the Gibraltar airport is in Spanish territory. It is definitely within the Gibraltar frontier and within our territory.
Read the Treaty of Utrecht then.
The isthmus is NOT included.
Capito?
indeed.. the isthmus is NOT included in the Treaty of Utrecht
Have you read the United Nations human rights column where it clearly says that our rights must be respected and anything within the border on Gibraltar side is British and that human rights goes over any treaty especially a 300+ year old treaty
Nobody should be under any illusion about these negotiations. I believe they are going to be unpleasant and may even fail entirely. Indeed, I think the latter quite probable. That is because there is little chance (though it cannot be ruled out) the EU’s 38 governments (27 national ones plus key regional ones) and the European Parliament will agree on anything that Britain could accept.
Under such circumstances, Britain needs to use every card in the pack — security, ‘divide and rule’, weakened NATO commitment in Eastern Europe, hitting the German auto industry (diesel emission standards…), discouraging British tourism to Spain, the Euro bond market, Britain’s edge in intelligence (let us hope GCHQ and MI5 are working overtime…), bending the ear of The Visegrad Pact, and so on. Indeed, given the Euro’s fragile condition, there are probably ways Britain could credibly threaten to pull the rug out from under the common currency (mere mention of which would put more strain on Southern Europe). Not paying an ‘exit’ bill would also be likely to scupper the EU budget and make Merkel more vulnerable to domestic critics in an election year. The PM says she wants a strong, healthy EU as a neighbour. Yet under certain (extreme) circumstances, it might be better to have a weak, faltering EU on the other side of the channel.
Since the EU Commission’s approach is to seek EU unanimity behind impossible conditions, there is no reason for Britain to hold back. My personal preference is for a ‘gentlemen’s agreement’ and a ‘smooth exit’ but reason and instinct tell me Britain has a battle on its hands. The sooner we grasp that, the better.