Brexit extremists should be careful what they wish for. They want the UK to crash out of the EU with no deal. But the more they push this scenario, the more likely they are to end up with no Brexit at all.
No deal would be so bonkers that MPs of all parties are joining forces to block it. A cross-party group wants to amend the EU Withdrawal Bill so there’s a proper vote at the end of the Brexit talks. They want this vote whether there’s a deal or no deal.
Amending the bill wouldn’t in itself stop us quitting without a deal. But it would set the stage for a pitched battle in about a year’s time when the Brexit talks end. If Theresa May then comes back empty-handed, Parliament would probably tell her she can’t just crash out.
This wouldn’t mean we would automatically stay in the EU either. After all, May has already triggered Article 50 telling the EU she wants to leave. There would be a conflict between what Parliament was telling the prime minister to do and what she had already officially informed the EU we planned to do.
What would happen then?
Labour says the government should go back into talks with the EU and get a good deal. But this isn’t terribly realistic. If May can’t get a good Brexit first time round, why would the EU give her a better deal the second time? By this time next year, there would be only five months left before we are supposed to quit the EU. Our back would really be against the wall.
We would then only have two real options: quit the EU with no deal or call the whole thing off.
The only sensible thing to do would be to ask the people what they want. This could be via an election. But a referendum would give a clearer answer. Ultimately, this would probably even be the Tories’ preferred option. After all, calling an election following a total breakdown of the Brexit talks would be like rolling out the red carpet to Downing Street for Jeremy Corbyn.
Such a referendum would probably lead to the people saying “no” to no deal and “yes” to staying in the EU. Which makes one wonder why Brexit extremists are pushing no deal in the first place.
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Edited by Luke Lythgoe
A referendum is a totally inappropriate way of solving the problem ( or answering the question) as we found out in June 2016. It a vehicle which lends itself to prejudice, irrational reactions etc. The ignorance of the EU of the general public in the UK is staggering and the anti-EU press would have a field day in stirring up the electorate against this ” foreign clique ” which was refusing to behave reasonably to the poor ” Brits “.
Please no more referenda; let Parliament do its job as our national representatives. Let parliament take back control.
I can see the Government saying they have been sufficiently ‘democratic’ by offering Parliament a ‘take it or leave it’ vote on some miserable package. The threat to Tory backbenchers would be if, you don’t back the Government, there will be No Deal, and/or you may help Jeremy Corbyn into office. It is highly likely the negotiated deal would be a disasterous one to suit the Hard Brexit lobby. This is where the other parties and Pro-Europe Tories must be brave enough to prevent any such ultimatum. There must be a vote which allows the possibility of a more business and citizen friendly soft Brexit i.e. with tarrif free access to the Single Market and customs union, or indeed a scenario which allows cancelling of Art.50. Ultimately this would proabaly require further endorsement either through a second Referendum or a general election. However, it is now vital that the majority of MP’s, who know that the Government is on course to destroy our close relationship with Europe, do something to prevent this happening . For this, they will have to put the future of the country, and Europe, ahead of the cosiness inside their party.