There probably isn’t a majority in either parliament or public for a destructive Brexit. That means Philip Hammond has a strong hand if he holds his nerve and refuses to back any deal that makes Britain poorer.
At present, the chancellor is probably unsackable. That’s presumably why Downing Street said today that Theresa May has “full confidence” in Hammond, following a string of the off-the-record briefings against him in the press.
The chancellor’s position is strong not just because May’s parliamentary majority is thin and opinion polls suggest that the public thinks getting a good trade deal with the EU is more important than cutting immigration. If Hammond were to resign, the pound would probably tumble further as investors concluded that the way was now open for a hard Brexit, leaving the single market and the customs union. Mark Carney, the Bank of England governor, might go too – adding a further vicious twist to what traders are already dubbing May-hem.
This is despite the fact that Hammond is becoming increasingly unpopular among Brexiters. The Telegraph said he was “facing accusations of attempting to ‘undermine Brexit’ by pushing for delays to Cabinet measures designed to control immigration” and “that tensions have increased to the point that there are even fears Mr Hammond could resign as Chancellor”. According to The Times, unnamed Brexit-supporting ministers “say that Mr Hammond is not following Theresa May’s instruction that government ‘get on’ with Brexit.”
Hammond’s position is further strengthened by the fact that parliamentarians opposed to a destructive Brexit seem finally to be getting their act together. Not only did a cross-party group of MPs force May last week to agree to a debate on her Brexit plans before she triggers Article 50; they are now calling for her to produce a plan, perhaps in the form of a White Paper, and for MPs then to vote on it.
Such initiatives may hold the hardliners in the cabinet in check for a while. But this does not mean they will lead to an alternative type of Brexit – in particular, one in which Britain keep most if not all of its access to the single market.
In order to get such a deal, the UK will probably have to let the EU’s citizens come here freely, pay into its budget and keep following its rules. It is hard to see May pushing something like that through parliament given that it would provoke further divisions within her party. But at some point the prime minister has to choose.
Hugo Dixon is co-founder of CommonGround as well as editor-in-chief of InFacts. You can sign up as a supporter here.
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Edited by Paul Taylor
So we all have to suffer just because the Tory Party has not only divided the nation, but has also divided itself.
Sadly this is the massive backfire of Tory overlord Cameron gamble. He never fixed the divide in his party. He’s metaphorically merely flipped the coin around. Now the eurosceptics whom have motivations to make the UK more hard right and more pro corporations and the elite are running the roost and the centre right tories and pro Europe and common market are the backbench. If remain had won the divide was still there. Now T.May has a problem she knows brexit is the only thing giving any legitimacy to her tenuous position. Logical tories hopefully will see if the economy is sacrificed for this madness then the old tory blame game will be harder than ever as this whole fiasco lies on them. Corbyn came put stronger last pmq and I support Hammond fighting this. She can’t shut her chancellor out or deny his opinion if she does she risks making her cabinet a dictatorship. Imagine in the private sector in a CFO was excluded from board meetings.
This is clearly going nowhere. If a very soft Brexit is the aim the U.K. still ends up with rather less than it has now, without the “sovereignty and controls over it immigration” it so badly desires and still paying into the EU, the third Brexit bugbear. The only alternatives are a hard Brexit or no Brexit at all. What a joke!
I am no Tory but the only one with any clear idea with how to proceed seems to be Hammond. I have watched him perform in the various Cabinet roles he has held and although he can come across as boring he is always calm and rational in his rhetoric. Never any knee jerk responses. As Chancellor he has steadied things after Osborne’s shambolic reign. If the Eurosceptics could be shown to wrong and the Europhiles take back control of the Tory Party then Hammond would be a likely replacement to the hapless and gutless May. But I would still like prefer to see Jeremy Corbyn as PM and John McDonnell as Chancellor!