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Analysis

30 top pro-European battlegrounds

by Luke Lythgoe | 07.06.2017

InFacts has drawn up a list of 30 seats where pro-European voters could make a real difference. This either means defending a pro-European MP with a narrow majority or ousting vulnerable Tories. Victories in these seats will increase the number of pro-European MPs holding the prime minister to account in Parliament, and could even help prevent a Tory landslide – stopping Theresa May from ramming Brexit through at any cost.

If you don’t live in any of these seats, don’t worry. We’ve also made recommendations for all 573 seats in England and Wales – just enter your constituency or post code in the search bar below.

How should you vote?

In 17 seats pro-Europeans voters need to defend vulnerable MPs with a strong track record of speaking out against May’s hard Brexit. All vulnerable Lib Dems are on our list thanks to the party’s strongly anti-Brexit policies. It is also important to protect Labour MPs which have spoken out against Jeremy Corbyn’s weak Brexit policies.

Each of these MPs is at risk of losing to a Tory on June 8. But in this election there is the added danger of Ukip voters turning to the Conservatives to secure a hard Brexit. Below you can see how adding just 50% of the Ukip vote in 2015 seriously erodes these vulnerable MPs’ majorities, often sending them into negative figures.

InFacts table of pro-European targets to defend

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We have also listed 13 seats where pro-Europeans have the best chance of defeating a Tory. Most of these seats voted very strongly for Remain, suggesting there are many voters opposed to the Tories’ hard Brexit. We have also included a couple of Leave-voting constituencies where the Tory majority over Lib Dems is so narrow that a strong turnout of pro-European voters could still win the seat.

Our final seat is that of Labour Brexiter Kate Hoey in Vauxhall. In 2015 she had a 26% majority over the second-placed Tories, with the Lib Dems far behind. However, Hoey was a very prominent Brexiter during the referendum and her constituents voted 77% in favour of Remain – one of the highest Remain votes in the country. The Lib Dems came second in 2010 and are throwing considerable resources into their campaign against Hoey. Pro-Europeans can make a difference here.

InFacts table of pro-European targets to attack

Edited by Hugo Dixon