The good news from a huge new YouGov poll is that the Tory lead is shrinking. The bad news is they are still ahead – because too many pro-European votes are being wasted.
Boris Johnson is heading for a 28-seat majority. That would mean ripping us out of the EU – despite the fact that the will of the people has changed and most voters no longer want Brexit.
Look at the maths. The Tories are projected to get 52% of the seats in our Parliament despite the fact that they and their allies in the Brexit Party will get only 46% of the vote.
That’s better than the YouGov poll from two weeks ago. Then the Tories were projected to get a 68-seat majority with 55% of all MPs. Their share of the vote hasn’t changed in the intervening period. That suggests that pro-referendum voters are getting smarter in backing the candidates with the best chance of beating the Tories – but not yet smart enough.
Some big Brexiter beasts are now vulnerable. The Prime Minister himself is only nine points ahead of Labour in Uxbridge. Iain Duncan Smith is just two points in front in Chingford. Theresa Villiers is four points behind in Chipping Barnet.
Meanwhile, Dominic Raab is only two points ahead of the Lib Dems in Esher and Walton. The Lib Dems are also in hot pursuit of John Redwood in Wokingham. They are just five points behind.
We are tantalisingly close to victory. But we are not there yet.
We now need industrial scale tactical voting in these seats and across the land to bring the Tories down. People must hold their noses and vote for the candidate with the best chance of beating the Conservatives even if it’s not their first choice.
YouGov’s estimate of the vote share in each constituency is available here.
The piece was updated to include reference to Theresa Villiers