We have a fantastic opportunity to lead the EU and make it better if we remain. But if we leave, we face serious economic and geopolitical risks.
The EU accounts for half our trade. If we leave, we will not get as good access to its market. We will lose the 50-plus trade deals the EU has with other countries. We will also lack clout in cutting new trade deals. This will be bad for jobs.
The divorce process would be agonising. Boris Johnson would probably replace David Cameron as prime minister. The EU would not make our exit easy as its priority would be to keep its club together.
All this would scare investors and consumers. Uncertainty could tip Britain into a recession. Contrary to the Leave camp’s propaganda, we’d have less money for vital services such as the NHS, not more.
Brexit would also weaken Europe at a time of turmoil on its southern border and when Vladimir Putin is flexing his muscles in the east. Donald Trump, an anti-NATO protectionist bully, may also be America’s next president. Post-Brexit Britain would not be in the room when Europe decides how to address these risks.
Brexit could trigger the break-up of the UK (with Scotland making another bid for independence) as well as the EU’s break-up. Britain would be blamed for decades. Instability in our backyard would threaten our security.
By contrast, if we stay, we can set the agenda on things that matter to British people – creating the next generation of jobs, fighting terrorism and tackling global warming.
We are Europe’s second largest economy and on track to become the biggest. We have Europe’s most sophisticated armed forces, best intelligence agencies and centuries of diplomatic expertise.
We should lead Europe, not leave Europe.
This is an abbreviation of a piece already published on InFacts, entitled “Why the UK should stay in the EU – in 900 words”
Hugo Dixon is the author of The In/Out Question: Why Britain should stay in the EU and fight to make it better. Available here for £5 (paperback), £2.50 (e-book)