Here’s something to cheer up pro-Europeans. The latest bout of Tory chaos increases the chance of stopping Brexit.
Theresa May isn’t just struggling with a sex scandal that has led to the resignation of one cabinet minister and left her deputy fighting for his political life. She’s so weak that she can’t fire Priti Patel when the development secretary meets the Israeli prime minister behind her back. Nor can she do anything when Boris Johnson makes a gaffe that could lead to a British woman spending an extra five years in an Iranian jail.
All this is happening when May was already a ghost of a prime minister after a terrible general election, a catastrophic conference speech and her inability to come up with a Brexit plan. There are now four main scenarios, in three of which there could be opportunities to reconsider our decision to quit the EU.
May hangs on by fingertips
When the prime minister’s authority seemingly can’t sink any further, it’s possible that it’ll do just that – keep plunging. The Tories know that kicking May out could unleash civil war between hardline Brexiters such as Johnson and softer Brexiters such as Amber Rudd. So they let her stay in Downing Street. But the prime minister lacks the charisma and chutzpah to force her warring ministers into line. So the government just limps on from one crisis to the next, depressed, drifting and debilitated.
This is bad for the country. But there’s a silver lining. Voters, who already know May is making a Horlicks of the Brexit talks, get worried that she’s seriously damaging their future. Pro-Europeans will then find it easier to make the case that we should look again at the option of staying in the EU.
PM miraculously gets a grip
May’s whole behaviour since becoming prime minister speaks against the idea that she will turn the crisis to her advantage. But it’s not totally far-fetched that she could use the sex scandals and her ministers’ mishaps to clear out the Cabinet and install a new generation of Tories.
This is the one scenario that doesn’t offer obvious opportunities for pro-Europeans. After all, the prime minister would presumably press ahead with Brexit and, if she really did get a grip and keep control, she would be able to push it through.
New Tory PM
It’s quite likely, though, that May won’t last the course. Perhaps the strain will be so great that she’ll fall on her sword. Perhaps her rivals will finally summon the courage to knife her. Perhaps the prime minister will cull the Cabinet in a night of the long knives, only to find that her enemies then cut her down in a counter-attack.
In this scenario, the Tories will have to choose a new leader. That will launch another bloody battle lasting several months, as candidates first intrigue to get support of their fellow MPs and then woo the party’s members. It’s anybody’s guess who’ll emerge at the top of the greasy pole – perhaps Johnson, Rudd, David Davis or even Michael Gove.
But the public will probably be disgusted by the internecine warfare when the party is supposed to be managing our most important negotiation since World War Two. Pro-Europeans should then be able to get a hearing for the argument that we should stop the madness of Brexit before it’s too late.
Corbyn in Downing Street
If the Tories do tear themselves apart, it may be hard to avoid a general election. Jeremy Corbyn would then be in pole position to win, although he might well need to rely on the Scottish National Party and perhaps the Liberal Democrats, both of which are pro-European, to get a majority.
The Labour leader is soft Brexit not anti-Brexit. But if he became prime minister, he might shift further in a pro-European direction. The election would certainly reopen the debate about what is best for Britain and we might decide that quitting isn’t such a good idea after all.
None of this is to deny that the Mayhem the Tories are inflicting on the country is risk-free. The chaos is already knocking business confidence and damaging our credibility in the Brexit talks. But, on balance, for pro-Europeans, it offers more upside than risk.