Jo Johnson’s resignation could change the calculations of key players – MPs, ministers, media, voters and our EU partners – and pave the way for a People’s Vote.
Until Boris Johnson’s brother quit as transport minister on Friday, the weight of conventional opinion in Westminster and Brussels was that Theresa May would somehow get a Brexit deal and ram it through her Cabinet and then Parliament.
True, many people argued that the prime minister’s Brexit scheme would collapse under the weight of its own internal contradictions. But the Whitehall machinery is formidable and the Tory whips can both bribe MPs to toe the party line (by dangling Cabinet positions, knighthoods and so forth) and threaten them with the political wilderness if they don’t.
But such promises and threats only work if you believe that May will actually succeed in reaching the finishing line – because, if she doesn’t, she won’t be in any position to reward loyalists or punish opponents.
Johnson’s resignation has had an electric effect because it comes at a time when the prime minister’s plan is already on the ropes. In her desperation to do a deal that keeps the Irish border open under all circumstances, she is making one concession after another – and still doesn’t have a deal. They all point in the same direction: turning the UK into what both the Johnson brothers call a “vassal state” – following EU rules on trade and the single market without any say on them.
May doesn’t just face a pincer movement from pro-European Tories (such as Jo Johnson) and anti-European Tories (such as Boris Johnson). She is also being attacked by Northern Ireland’s DUP and risks losing the support of Scottish Tories. The latter are concerned that the prime minister’s deal could pave the pay for Scottish independence and prevent the UK taking back control of fishing, a big concern for many of their constituents.
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Tipping point?
Jo Johnson is right that the prime minister should not be forcing Parliament to choose between the “vassalage” of her deal and the “chaos” of crashing out of the EU with no deal at all. Given that what’s on offer is so far from the “false prospectus” promised by his brother in the referendum, it would be a “democratic travesty” not to ask the people whether they still want to quit.
Other Conservative MPs will be reviewing their positions. Does it still make sense to weigh in behind a prime minister’s when she has little chance of ramming through her deal? Surely it would be better to back a People’s Vote given this is an increasingly realistic option – especially as they know that staying in the EU would be much the best outcome for our nation?
There will be similar calculations in the media. A striking leader in Saturday’s Times, entitled “Honest Jo”, came within a whisker of endorsing a People’s Vote. The Daily Mail and Financial Times, both of which have hitherto been square behind the prime minister, also gave positive coverage to Johnson’s resignation.
Business too will reflect on whether it is sensible to weigh in behind the prime minister. Last week saw the launch of Business for a People’s Vote. This weekend, there is a powerful column in the FT by Mike Rake, the CBI’s former president, calling on business to back a new vote.
The People’s Vote campaign will gain momentum. Activists will be emboldened. Donors will be more willing to give money. Meanwhile, our EU friends will increasingly realise that Brexit may well be cancelled – and will start preparing for that possibility.
Jo Johnson’s resignation is brilliantly timed. It will persuade others to abandon the prime minister’s defeatist suck-up-the-misery camp and join the upbeat realists fighting for a People’s Vote.
The word “sycophants” was changed to “loyalists” shortly after publication