With Jeremy Hunt and Boris Johnson both setting out extreme Brexit positions, the key question for pro-Europeans is who is most likely to swerve and what happens if they don’t.
Anybody thinking that the current Foreign Secretary will have a significantly softer approach to Brexit than his predecessor should be disabused by his interview today in the Sunday Times. There Hunt commits to the EU with no deal on October 31 if he hasn’t managed to negotiate a different deal by early October – and there’s chance of that.
He also threatens to withhold part of the divorce £39 billion divorce fee that Theresa May negotiated with the bloc, something virtually guaranteed to be a red rag to our European friends.
Last week Johnson said it was a matter of “do or die” to leave the EU on October 31. The dynamics of the Conservative leadership campaign are making both candidates more and more extreme.So, in terms of their official positions, there is little to choose between the two candidates. They are both extremely dangerous.
However, it may be easier to stop Johnson than Hunt doing something crazy. This is partly because Johnson has a greater capacity to do U-turns than anybody else in British politics. The current Foreign Secretary isn’t averse to flip-flopping himself. Witness how he has gone backwards and forwards over whether or not to crash out without a deal.
However, it would be harder for Hunt to sell to the British people the need for a new referendum than it would be for Johnson to do so.There is also greater hostility among moderate Tory MPs towards Johnson than to Hunt. This means that it is more likely they would vote to bring down a government which he ran. Hunt, by contrast, might just keep his party together as he dragged us all over the cliff into the abyss.
What’s more, if we do crash out of the EU without a deal, that won’t be the end of the story. If Hunt is at the controls, hardline Brexiters will say he messed it up because he wasn’t a true believer. Remember that Hunt voted remain three years ago. By contrast, if Johnson is at the wheel when his red bus plunges into the chasm, he will have no way of washing his hands of the chaos. Nor will it be easy for other Brexiters to shift the blame to anybody but themselves.
Sure, we will still have to pick up the pieces – and that will require an enormous national effort of reconstruction and reconciliation. But at least then, it should be easier to start with an honest foundation.