David Cameron says the EU won’t go away if we quit. We’ll just lose influence over things that matter in our neighbourhood such as standing up to Vladimir Putin, combatting global warming, dealing with the turmoil in the Middle East and protecting ourselves against jihadi terrorism.
But our plight might actually be worse than the prime minister suggests. We can’t assume that the EU will just continue as it is if we quit. Brexit might destabilise the EU or prod its strongest countries to create a United States of Europe. Neither would be in our interests.
This is not to dismiss Cameron’s concerns about what might happen if the EU just soldiered on.
Losing influence
Take Russia. Britain pushed for tough EU sanctions against the Kremlin after Putin annexed Crimea. If we hadn’t been in the EU, it is doubtful the bloc would have imposed such strong sanctions – or that Britain would have had the courage to take unilateral action as that would have exposed us to retaliatory action.
Or look at China. Cameron is kowtowing to Beijing in order to secure investment deals. How much more would we prostrate ourselves if we were operating entirely solo.
Meanwhile, our so-called special relationship with America, which is not as special as it once was, would deteriorate further. Part of the value Washington sees in London is the fact that we act as a bridge between America and Europe.
If we were outside the EU, Washington would shift its attention increasingly towards Berlin and Paris. America, which is already tiring of playing the role of global policeman, might even take the opportunity to disengage from Europe.
In the process, Nato, which has been the bedrock of our defence since World War Two, might be destabilised. Although Nato and the EU are separate alliances, they overlap and reinforce one another. If you unpick one, you may weaken the other.
So even if the EU continues pretty much as it is post Brexit, Britain will lose influence.
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But now look at two alternative scenarios.
Europe falls apart
One is that the EU disintegrates, as other countries take their lead from Britain and hold their own referendums. That’s what France’s far-right Marine Le Pen hopes and Harvard historian Niall Ferguson predict.
We should banish any Schadenfreude we might experience contemplating such a situation. A splintering Europe would be even more troubled and incapable of solving the problems in its neighbourhood than it already is. Putin would have greater scope to create mischief. Although it is hard to predict what exactly would happen, Britain would be unable to pull up the drawbridge and insulate itself from the ensuing instability.
Of course, the EU might disintegrate even if we remain. But we will be in a better position to build something new from the pieces if were part of the bloc, rather than if we have already left and are seen as part of the reason for it falling apart in the first place.
The United States of Europe
There’s also an opposite danger: that, if we quit the EU, some of the remaining countries create a superstate with Germany at its core. A United States of Europe with a central government and its own army – until now just a bogeyman dreamt up by eurosceptics – would become a reality.
Again, it is hard to predict how such a superstate would behave. But it would probably be less liberal than the current EU and less aligned to British interests. The best we could hope for is that we would be allowed to tag along as a junior partner.
Contrast such risks with the opportunity to lead the EU in foreign policy if we remain. Radek Sikorski, the former Polish foreign minister, was exaggerating when he said Europe was “yearning” for British leadership. However, there is certainly a vacuum. Britain with its diplomatic expertise, relatively strong army and permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council is well placed to fill it.
Edited by Luke Lythgoe
Hugo Dixon is the author of The In/Out Question: Why Britain should stay in the EU and fight to make it better. Available here for £5 (paperback), £2.50 (e-book)
That all sounds fair enough, as far as it goes, except for the bit about the UK’s Security Council seat. There’s long been rumblings about getting beyond the winners of the second world war in the Security Council. A diminished Britain might well be seen as the best chance for ages to reform the permanent membership. For Britain, a further loss of status…