David Hannay is a member of the House of Lords and former UK ambassador to the EU and UN.
We have spent the last three days being exposed to the views of the author of “The Art of the Deal”. Amongst Donald Trump’s views, none is more frequently reiterated – or more frequently parroted by eager Brexiters – than you cannot expect to get a deal if you are not prepared to walk away from the negotiating table without a deal.
So perhaps we should test this standard operating procedure of Trumpian diplomacy against the experience of the Great Deal-Maker over the last two years.
North Korea
Trump certainly walked away from the latest meeting in Hanoi. Has that made it more likely that North Korea will give up its nuclear weapons? Not obviously so. Has it limited North Korea’s production of fissile material and the means of its delivery? Not in the slightest.
Iran
The US unilaterally pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal despite the fact that the International Atomic Energy Agency regularly certifies that Iran is fulfilling its obligations under the agreement to roll back its uranium enrichment programme, and thus lengthening the time it would take Iran if it were to decide to resume acquiring a nuclear capability. Has Trump’s move made it more likely that Iran will stick to its side of the deal; or that we can avoid a nuclear arms race in the Middle East? Unfortunately not.
Israel/Palestine
Trump has ridden roughshod over UN Security Council resolutions by recognising Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and the Golan Heights as part of its territory. He has also withdrawn from the UN’s Palestinian relief agency. Has that brought a solution of the Arab-Israeli problem closer? Quite the contrary. It has merely ensured that his peace plan – “the deal of the century” – will be dead on arrival if it ever does see the light of day.
UN Human Rights Council
Has the US withdrawal from the Council improved human rights observance worldwide? No. It has weakened it by removing US influence.
Climate change
Has the US decision to withdraw from the Paris agreements helped to limit, or at least to mitigate, global warming? Neither of these objectives has been advanced.
Trade policy
The tariff wars triggered by the US against China, Mexico, Japan and the EU are merely damaging world economic growth and US producers and consumers. Any sign of a benefit to anyone? None.
So, if the track record of Trump’s walking away strategy is so appalling, what makes the Brexiters think that it will be any more successful if a new government here practises it on the other 27 EU countries? The hard fact is that there is not a scintilla of evidence that it would work. But there is plenty of evidence that, if it did not work, the UK would be more seriously damaged than its EU partners.