Since the referendum, the government, Labour party and the majority of the mainstream media – not least the BBC – have fallen in line behind Brexit, painting it as a done deal. Despite all this, public opinion is shifting against quitting the EU. In particular, support is building for a people’s vote on whatever Brexit deal Theresa May clinches.
Between the 2016 referendum and last year’s general election, a small majority of voters said they’d vote to quit the EU if a new referendum was held on EU membership. Since the general election, opinion has shifted – with around 52:48 in favour of remaining. This still isn’t enough to be sure of stopping Brexit, but it’s moving in the right direction.
Support for a people’s vote
Even more striking, the public is warming to the idea of a people’s vote once they know what Brexit means. A recent poll by Open Britain showed that 63% of people supported the public having a vote on the final Brexit deal, once the “don’t knows” were stripped out of the results.
This follows a larger poll in January by ICM for the Guardian in which 58% wanted the people to have a “final decision” on leaving the EU once the outcome of the negotiations was known, compared to 42% who didn’t.
Results like these depend on how you ask the question. Michael Ashcroft showed this by asking a series of slightly different questions on the issue, with results ranging from a 12% majority for a public vote to a 14% majority against.
A general rule is that people don’t like the idea of a “second referendum” or something similar. But the phrase “second referendum”, suggesting a re-run the campaign of 2016, isn’t what pro-Europeans are campaigning for. They want a vote on the Brexit deal.
This is a big deal which will affect us for generations. It will be the people’s first chance to compare the reality of Brexit to the reality of staying in the EU. The referendum compared a fantasy peddled by Boris Johnson with reality.
Taken together, the various polls suggest the public is now slightly in favour of a people’s vote on the Brexit deal. That’s a big shift from polling done shortly after the referendum, when a second referendum (admittedly not a people’s vote on the deal) was opposed by two to one.
Brexit dismay
Of course just securing a vote doesn’t mean people will vote to stop Brexit. They have to know Brexit is a bad idea too. There’s plenty of polling showing things are moving in this direction. A series of polls by YouGov to mark one year until Brexit found people thought Brexit would be bad for a whole range of things.
source: YouGov
The more facts emerge about Brexit, the worse it looks. People have the right to say stop if they think something this big is going badly.
InFacts is a founding member of the People’s Vote campaign.
This article was updated on April 15 to include the Open Britain poll.