The government’s cynical “meaningful vote 2.5” on the first part of the prime minister’s rotten Brexit deal has today been defeated by 58 votes. If Theresa May doesn’t want today to be the last gasp for her deal, there is a strategy still available to her: putting it to the people.
The prime minister has ruled a public vote out many times before, but when has that stopped her doing a u-turn? What’s more, it might salvage some of her political credibility and, at this point, could be the least damaging thing for her party – two things she really cares about.
Look at the alternatives. Parliament will not let the UK to crash out of the EU with no deal. The direction things seem to be moving after Wednesday’s “indicative” votes in the Commons is towards a softer form of Brexit – potentially with a confirmatory referendum attached. Either the UK will stay in just the EU’s customs union, or it will stay in its single market as well as the customs union.
These outcomes are explicitly ruled out in the Conservative party 2017 manifesto. Although some moderate Tories would break their pledge to the people and back a softer Brexit, hardliners would loathe it. And they would be sure to cry “stitch-up” if a new referendum was between a soft Brexit and staying in the EU. In short, any form of soft Brexit would tear the Conservative party to apart.
Putting May’s deal to a public vote would be different. For a start, the Conservative manifesto never ruled out a new referendum on Brexit. What’s more, as of today a whole host of Brexiters have voted for May’s deal through gritted teeth: Boris Johnson, Dominic Raab, Esther McVey, Iain Duncan Smith, Jacob Rees-Mogg. If the deal was now put to the people, it’s hard to see what justification they would have for resigning from the Conservative party.
The dream scenario for May would be winning such a referendum. Even if she didn’t, we would be staying in the EU, the uncertainty of Brexit would be over, and the country could move forward and fix the country’s real problems – helping the NHS, building more houses, revitalising left-behind communities. After all, that’s what May said she wanted to do when she first stood in front of Downing Street nearly three years ago.
A People’s Vote is now the prime minister’s least bad option – for her legacy, her party and the country. It’s time for one more u-turn.