The new prime minister got his facts wrong again, on his first day in Parliament. Our divorce fee is actually £33bn and we’d owe at least a chunk of it even if there’s no deal.
Boris Johnson said in his first statement in the House of Commons: “We would, of course, have available the £39bn in the withdrawal agreement to help deal with any consequences” [of a no-deal].
The first problem with the prime minister’s statement is that he has got the wrong number. £39bn is, indeed, the financial settlement agreed before Brexit was delayed. But shifting our exit date to October 31 makes the UK a member state for seven more months, during which it will continue to pay its fees. These additional contributions will be subtracted from the original settlement, taking the divorce bill down to £32.8bn, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility.
The second problem is that the government accepts that we must pay our bills. Geoffrey Cox, who has been reappointed as attorney general, said in the House of Commons in December: “The view of the government, and my view, is that we would have obligations to pay a certain amount of money were we to leave the European Union without a deal.”
Johnson’s rhetoric is based on a wrong assumption that the bill is a reward to the EU for a successful trade deal. Cox has made clear that linking Brexit bill payments to the progress of any trade talks would be illegal in unpublished legal advice, according to the Telegraph. The money represents unresolved British liabilities irrelevant to trade negotiations. These include previously agreed commitments, liabilities for loans, pension promises and other expenses.
Johnson could try to renegotiate the settlement, asking the EU for a discount. But refusing to pay it entirely would have dire consequences. The UK would damage its reputation as a country that obeys the law. That would make it harder to negotiate deals with other countries. Meanwhile, the EU would probably refuse to do any deals with us until we had paid what we owe – and, if we still refused, it would pursue us in the International Court of Justice.
If the new prime minister continues how he has started, the next few months will be filled with statements that mislead the public and antagonise our friends in Europe.