Brexit extremists should be careful what they wish for. They want the UK to crash out of the EU with no deal. But the more they push this scenario, the more likely they are to end up with no Brexit at all.
No deal would be so bonkers that MPs of all parties are joining forces to block it. A cross-party group wants to amend the EU Withdrawal Bill so there’s a proper vote at the end of the Brexit talks. They want this vote whether there’s a deal or no deal.
Amending the bill wouldn’t in itself stop us quitting without a deal. But it would set the stage for a pitched battle in about a year’s time when the Brexit talks end. If Theresa May then comes back empty-handed, Parliament would probably tell her she can’t just crash out.
This wouldn’t mean we would automatically stay in the EU either. After all, May has already triggered Article 50 telling the EU she wants to leave. There would be a conflict between what Parliament was telling the prime minister to do and what she had already officially informed the EU we planned to do.
What would happen then?
Labour says the government should go back into talks with the EU and get a good deal. But this isn’t terribly realistic. If May can’t get a good Brexit first time round, why would the EU give her a better deal the second time? By this time next year, there would be only five months left before we are supposed to quit the EU. Our back would really be against the wall.
We would then only have two real options: quit the EU with no deal or call the whole thing off.
The only sensible thing to do would be to ask the people what they want. This could be via an election. But a referendum would give a clearer answer. Ultimately, this would probably even be the Tories’ preferred option. After all, calling an election following a total breakdown of the Brexit talks would be like rolling out the red carpet to Downing Street for Jeremy Corbyn.
Such a referendum would probably lead to the people saying “no” to no deal and “yes” to staying in the EU. Which makes one wonder why Brexit extremists are pushing no deal in the first place.
