The government is reeling after its defeat on the EU Withdrawal Bill. Getting Parliament’s approval to pay the EU divorce of £40 billion will be even more difficult
Last week ministers reached agreement with Brussels about the cost of the UK’s departure from the EU. Although no official figure has been published, estimates suggest that we will have to pay at least £35-40 billion, and possibly much more, in order to leave. What no one has focused on yet is that the government won’t be able to pay a penny if it cannot get the House of Commons to agree. But, as Wednesday night’s vote on the Withdrawal Bill demonstrated, that won’t be easy.
Ministers have accepted that the Brexit agreement including, crucially, its financial element will require fresh legislation. This means that Parliament will have the opportunity to scrutinise the details of the divorce agreement and its approval will be required for the agreement to proceed.
The usual way to get approval from MPs to expenditure as a result of legislation is through a money resolution – that is, a motion put to the Commons agreeing that any monies that need to be spent as a result of a Bill can be met from public funds. Contrary to some reports, the government cannot avoid this; it is a constitutional requirement that the Commons approves all public expenditure. In order to get a money resolution, ministers must state publicly when publishing a Bill its financial implications.
It is easy to see circumstances in which the necessity for this vote will become a crisis for the government. No Brexiter wants to give away £35-40 billion of British taxpayers’ money. Before the government had reached agreement on the divorce bill, Brexit-supporting MPs like Jacob Rees-Mogg were claiming that the UK had no legal obligation to pay anything at all to the EU. Former Cabinet minister Priti Patel was even more blunt: the government should tell the EU to “sod off” over its demand that the UK meets its financial obligations she said.
As if that was not bad enough, there is no reason why the Labour party and the other opposition parties would feel obliged to back the government and vote for a Brexit divorce cost they have not negotiated. It is easy to imagine Labour and the SNP saying, “think what £35 billion could do for the NHS”. A combination of Brexiters and opposition parties could defeat the money resolution, provoking a major crisis. And that is without any rebel Tory Remainers opposing ministers.
It is one thing to stand up to reluctant rebels amongst the backbench Remainers, but quite another to face down the militant Brexiters. So far their voice on the divorce bill has been (relatively) muted. Yet Theresa May could find herself having to face them down in a year’s time and it will be an awful lot more difficult than Wednesday’s vote on the Withdrawal Bill.
