Boris Johnson waxed lyrical about turbocharging regions, a fast trans-Pennine railway and money for deprived communities in his first major speech as prime minister. But he can’t pay for it. If Boris Johnson manages to crash us out of the EU without a deal, the public finances will be knocked by £90 billion a year, according to the previous government’s own analysis.
Turn that on its head. If we stay in the EU, the government will have £90 billion a year extra to spend – compared to what it will have if we adopt the prime minister’s “do or die” course of action.
Johnson is right. Large swathes of the country desperately need a jump-start. They have been left behind, often for decades.
But his promise of a one-off £3.6 billion for 100 towns is piddling. We need sustained investment of several times that amount – year in, year out.
That’s what will allow deprived parts of the country to escape the cycle of decline. That’s what will allow them to attract talent and stop the brain drain. That’s what will let them enjoy a cultural renaissance. That’s what will attract private investment.
We could afford a multi-billion pound a year Jumpstart Fund if we stay in the EU, as CommonGround argued in a report backed by civil society and MPs from across the political spectrum last December. But if we crash out, Johnson will struggle to find the cash.
The same goes for his trans-Pennine railway linking Leeds and Manchester. That’s a good idea, albeit an old one that the Tories have been promising for years. But what about Liverpool and Newcastle? What about Hull, Birkenhead, Wolverhampton and Bradford? We need better transport links all over the place. And if we’re struggling to pay our bills, we’re not even going to be able to fund the trans-Pennine link.
Ditto for Johnson’s other promises. Yes, let’s have safer streets. Let’s defeat the gangs and the knife crime. Let’s employ 20,000 police officers to do the job. But where’s the cash?
And, sure, it would be wonderful to have broadband connectivity everywhere. What a fabulous thing to promise. But it’s terribly easy to make an upbeat speech; not so easy to deliver the goods when you’re also trying to take the economy over the cliff into the abyss.
It’s not just that the government won’t have any money. It won’t be able to focus on anything positive if it crashes out of the EU without a deal. Politicians will spend years fighting over who was to blame and desperately trying to dealing with the damage. The idea that they’re going to have the time to devolve power to local communities – another of Johnson’s promises – is for the birds.
The prime minister is so right – and so wrong – at the same time. Yes, we need to invest in infrastructure and public services. Yes, we need to empower communities. But, no, crashing out of the EU is not the way to do that. We’ll only be able to fix our problems if we stop fixating about Brexit.