An unexpected referendum defeat, a government with a small working majority whose party is divided, a complex European Bill and an opposition keen to defeat ministers. It is the story of 2017 and the challenges that face Theresa May’s administration. It was also the picture that greeted John Major in 1992.
The unexpected rejection of the Maastricht Treaty by the people of Denmark in June 1992 set off a chain of events from which the Conservative Party has never fully recovered. The origins of the crisis that faces Theresa May today lie in the fissures opened up in her party by that vote.
The referendum came shortly after Britain’s 1992 general election, the result of which was also a surprise. Labour had been expected to win on that occasion but John Major returned to No. 10 with a narrow majority. It appeared to be a great triumph but victory soon turned sour.
Having deferred the ratification of the Maastricht Treaty (which created the modern European Union) until after the election, Major now had to push that through but with a majority of just 25. He was to find it close to impossible because of a combination of splits in his own party and Labour’s determination to frustrate the Bill’s progress. No wonder many Conservative ministers look at the forthcoming (previously Great) Repeal Bill with deep foreboding.
They are doing so partly because the two-clause Maastricht Bill took 41 days of parliamentary time to pass; two more than the Bill that had taken the UK into the EU in 1971-72. Worse, that chronology fails to expose the fact that, night after night, the Commons sat into the small hours of the following morning. Ministers were unable to stop the debates because of a lack of votes.
Inevitably, there are many differences today from 1992. On the negative side, May’s “majority” is a working one of 12, dependent on the support of the Democratic Unionist Party and the absence of Sinn Fein. The Maastricht Bill was very short and technically hard to amend; the Great Repeal Bill will be long and easier to amend because of its broad scope. In 1993 Labour was led by pro-Europeans who wanted the Bill – in the end – to pass. Today, Labour’s leadership is more interested in bringing May down than in the Brexit process.
The government will be helped by the fact that all their Bills are now subject to strict timetables. Both main parties say that they accept that the referendum decision must be implemented. And they both officially support leaving the single market – although a group of 50-plus Labour MPs, MEPs and peers yesterday expressed its dissent at that party position, and may seek to complicate matters.
Much depends on the ability of the Tory whips to keep their own supporters together and, conversely, the ability of their Labour opponents to do the same. But if Tory and Labour Remainers (or soft Brexiters) unite together in defiance of their respective front benches, backed by the SNP and the Lib Dems, they might be able to amend the Bill.
That’s good news for pro-Europeans but a nightmare for the government whips. No wonder they have told Tory MPs to expect many late evening votes in this Parliamentary session.