If Tory MPs get rid of Theresa May as their leader, the political crisis will get even messier. But there will still be lots of ways to stop Brexit.
Hardline Brexiter Conservatives are fuming at the prime minister’s latest u-turn – her decision to delay Brexit again and, as a consequence, the high likelihood that the UK will hold European Parliament elections next month. MPs from the backbench 1922 committee are meeting this afternoon to consider changing its rules so she can face an early leadership challenge.
The prime minister successfully fought off a leadership challenge last December. Under current rules, she would be safe until this December. But so furious are both MPs and local party activists (who have called a special meeting to hold a vote of no-confidence in the prime minister) that the rules may be changed to allow a challenge as soon as June 12 – unless she agrees to go of her own free will.
If May is ousted, and it’s possible this rebellion will fizzle out like others before it, she is likely to be replaced by an extreme Brexiter. Boris Johnson is currently by far the most popular candidate among the local members who will ultimately decide who is their leader. But even if he is pipped to the post, whoever wins the contest is virtually bound to take a harder line on Brexit than May.
This might seem bad news for those who wish to stop Brexit. But it’s not necessarily so. There are at least four ways that the choice of a hardline Tory leader could result in the Brexit project being cancelled.
Commons takes control from lame-duck May
It may take several months for the Tories to kick out the prime minister and replace her. In the meantime, Parliament – which has flexed its muscles in recent months – could take more control of the Brexit process.
If pro-European parties do well in the European elections, MPs will be emboldened to call for a new referendum on whether we should leave the EU at all. A lame duck prime minister might struggle to stop them.
National unity government
The Tories don’t really have a majority in the House of Commons as things stand. If somebody like Johnson took over from May, more Conservative MPs would defect – perhaps to sit as independents or join the new Change UK party.
The loss of a majority might trigger a general election (see below). But it might also lead to a national unity government – where Labour, SNP, Lib Dem and other MPs joined forces for a short period to sort out Brexit. Probably the only policy such a government could agree on would be to put the decision on whether to go ahead with Brexit to the people in a new referendum.
General election leads to People’s Vote
The Tories don’t at present look well placed to win a general election. They are languishing in the opinion polls. They are being attacked both by pro-Europeans and even more extreme Brexiters such as Nigel Farage.
A new leader such as Johnson might hope to regain ground, presumably by tacking further to the right, and win. But if Jeremy Corbyn unequivocally embraced a pro-referendum policy, he would probably be best placed to win – although, on current polls, he might need the support of the SNP to get a majority in the Commons.
Such a government would then launch a People’s Vote – provided, that is, there was enough time.
New government cancels Brexit
Brexit has only been delayed until October 31. It would be impossible to oust May, hold a general election and have a new referendum in the next six months. So an incoming Labour government might well ask the EU for a further delay to hold such a People’s Vote.
But maybe the EU will say no to extra time. Or maybe Corbyn will say that the public has been so exhausted by elections that he would just cancel Brexit. He could argue that the election was a People’s Vote.