When Barack Obama came out last month in support of Britain staying in the EU, some Brexiteers argued his views shouldn’t be taken seriously as he was a “lame duck” president. The next day Hillary Clinton’s senior policy adviser made similar remarks.
The last US refuge for the Leave camp is Donald Trump. Wisely, though, it didn’t crow when the Donald came out and backed Brexit. Trump in the White House would be bad for post-Brexit Britain for three reasons.
First, the presumptive Republican nominee questions the need for NATO. He thinks America is spending too much on Europe’s defence and may need to scale back its involvement significantly.
At a time of danger in our region – with north Africa and the Middle East in turmoil, and Russia flexing its muscles – we need a strong security policy. NATO and the EU should be the twin pillars of such a policy. But if we quit the EU and Trump undermines NATO, our defences will be weakened.
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Second, Trump is a protectionist. He has threatened to impose punitive tariffs on Mexican and Chinese imports and railed against the Trans-Pacific Partnership, America’s trade pact with Pacific Rim nations. He has also said he doesn’t mind trade wars.
Obama warned that a post-Brexit Britain would go to “the back of the queue” when it came to cutting trade deals. With Trump, there might not be any trade deals at all. All the more reason for us not to jeopardise our access to the EU’s single market, which is responsible for nearly half our trade, by voting to leave.
Third, Trump is a bully. Nothing would stop him trying to boss Britain around – say on trade, finance or foreign policy – if he thought he could get away with it. If we were on our own, he could throw his weight around. But if we stick together with the rest of the EU, we will be too big to bully.
Trump is not the favourite to succeed Obama in the White House. But, in a two-horse race, anything is possible. If we vote to leave the EU in June and the Americans vote for Trump in November, we will sorely regret it.
Hugo Dixon is the author of The In/Out Question: Why Britain should stay in the EU and fight to make it better. Available here for £5 (paperback), £2.50 (e-book)