Lots of facts have emerged since the referendum showing Brexit isn’t all it was cracked up to be. Here are 11 of the top ones.
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1. The Brexit talks are going badly because we need the EU more than it needs us. As a result, the government is making one climb-down after another in the Brexit talks.
2. The government has agreed to pay a divorce bill of at least £35 billion to leave the EU. That’s 100 times the £350 million a week extra for the NHS that the Leave campaign falsely promised.
3. We will have to follow EU rules in the transition without a vote on them. That’s because the government is so desperate to cushion the blow of Brexit that it has agreed to change almost nothing, except for giving up our voting rights, for nearly two years. That’s losing, not taking back control.
4. We will lose control in the long term too. The government has already proposed that we will become a rule-taker in areas like fighting crime and competition policy. It is likely to agree to become a rule-taker in other areas as the talks proceed. We will be turned into what Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Tory Brexiter, calls a “vassal state”.
5. It is going to be fiendishly hard to avoid border controls in Northern Ireland. This could imperil peace. The solution is likely to involve becoming a rule-taker in yet more areas and further loss of control.
6. Brexit is squeezing people’s pay – before we’ve even left. The pound plunged after the referendum, making it more expensive to buy goods from abroad. That, in turn, has pushed prices up in the shops. Inflation has shot up to 2.7% from 0.5% in the month of the referendum. Because wages have been growing more slowly, people are being paid less in real terms.
7. The UK has become the slowest growing member of the Group of 7 large industrialised nations. We were the fastest growing. Again, this has happened before we’ve even left.
8. Brexit is bad for the NHS. The number of nurses coming to work from the EU has plunged by 89% while the number leaving the NHS has risen by 67%. One in five EU doctors is considering leaving due to Brexit. The idea that we’ll get faster treatment in accident and emergency departments if we kick out foreigners is 100% wrong.
9. Trade deals with rest of world are off to a bad start. Without the EU’s clout behind us, we risk being bullied. America is clear any deal with us would be on its terms – including forcing us to take chlorine-washed chicken. Australia wants us to import hormone-treated beef. Japan is focused on finalising its own deal with the EU, not with us. So is India which, in any case, wants us to make it easier for its citizens to come here as part of any deal. We are also scrambling to copy the deals the EU already has with over 60 countries such as South Korea and South Africa.
10. The world is getting more dangerous and unstable. A former Russian spy was poisoned in Salisbury. America and China are starting a trade war. Donald Trump has sought to tear up both the Paris climate change deal and the Iran nuclear pact. He also used to say Nato was obsolete. And then there’s Syria. Do we really think we will be better able to fight for the national interest by burning our bridges with Europe?
11. Vote Leave may have cheated on spending rules during the referendum by funnelling cash through a puppet operation. Facebook has also said data on more than 1 million Brits was improperly shared with Cambridge Analytica, the controversial consultancy whose family of companies worked on the Leave side during the referendum. This raises the question: Was the information harvested from Brits’ Facebook profiles used to manipulate voters over Brexit?
Brexit is a big deal. It is going to affect us and our children for generations. When new facts emerge on something so important, the public has a right to look at things again. That’s why we need a People’s Vote on the deal.
Research by Luke Lythgoe
InFacts is a founding member of the People’s Vote campaign.