Labour’s fence-sitting and divisions among pro-European parties have been unfortunate in the European elections. They would be catastrophic if there is a general election.
There is a real danger that Nigel Farge’s Brexit Party will form a pact with a new hard-Brexit Tory leader. If the forces opposed to Brexit and/or in favour of a new referendum are in disarray, the hardliners will win such an election. These demagogues will then impose not just a destructive form of Brexit on our country but much more misery besides.
If Theresa May is kicked out, as seems likely, her successor will be an extreme Brexiter. Tory party members, who have the final say, will not back anybody who is seen as soft. But this Parliament will not let us crash out of the EU with no deal. So unless some sort of national unity government can be formed, we could be heading for a general election.
Pact of the devil
A Tory party at war with itself would normally be slaughtered in such an election. But what if it is led by a populist such Boris Johnson who agrees a pact with Farage?
This can no longer be viewed as fanciful. Farage said yesterday he would “do a deal with the devil” to get a hard Brexit. Crispin Blunt, the Tory MP, responded by telling BBC’s Newsnight that ousting May would inevitably lead to an election and that “the Conservatives are almost certainly going to have to go into some kind of electoral arrangement with the Brexit Party.” He suggested Farage’s party should stand in the seats the Tories don’t hold.
Such a devilish deal can be defeated. But not if Jeremy Corbyn continues with his mealy-mouthed Brexit policy and the other parties fight one another.
Many pro-European voters are aghast at the divisions within our camp in the European elections and the failure of the Lib Dems, Greens and Change UK to put up a single champion in next month’s Peterborough by-election.
They should not be too worried – yet. After all, the priority in the European elections is to get as many votes for pro-referendum parties as possible. A good crop of MEPs would be a bonus. But the MEPs will have no say on whether we can stop Brexit – and, if we fail to do so, they will lose their seats anyway.
Meanwhile, the Labour candidate in Peterborough is expected to toe the party line. So if she wins and Corbyn whips again in favour of a confirmatory referendum, her vote can almost certainly be counted upon.
Pro-Europeans must unite
But a general election is a totally different beast from both the European elections and by-elections. What will matter is which constellation of forces can form a government – and what its Brexit policy will be.
The priority will be to get Corbyn off the fence, as he will be best placed to lead such a government. This is why it is good that Labour voters are deserting the party for the Lib Dems and Greens in the European elections. One poll yesterday put Labour on just 16% – just one point ahead of the Lib Dems.
Many of Corbyn’s MPs were up in arms last night about how his fudged policy is losing them votes. Hopefully, he will get the message before any general election.
But it will also be important for the Lib Dems, Greens and Change UK not to fight one another – and ideally for them not to fight Labour either if it comes out with an unequivocal pro-referendum policy. If the Tories and Farage reach a pact, the forces opposing them must come together too.
Even without a Tory/Farage pact, the Lib Dems, Greens and Change UK should work together in a future election – especially if Corbyn sticks with his mealy-mouthed approach. That way, they will be able to form a powerful bloc in Parliament which could hold the balance of power and help determine the course of Brexit.
We could be into a Tory leadership election in weeks and a general election in the autumn. There is no time to lose. The planning for a pro-European alliance needs to start now.