After being chosen as Lib Dem leader, Jo Swinson said: “This is the time for working together. This is not the time for tribalism.” If she is true to her word, the UK’s pro-European forces will be well placed to triumph in an election.
The country could easily be heading for one, as a result of the political crisis Boris Johnson seems set to unleash as prime minister. Under our first-past-the-post voting system, Johnson may be able to increase the number of Tory MPs if he reaches a pact with Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party and the pro-European vote is split.
In such a scenario, it will be vital that pro-Europeans work across party lines to stop Johnson – and then form a coalition to stop Brexit. Swinson has a critical role to play, as the leader of the largest unambiguously pro-European party.
Deal with the Greens
The Lib Dems, currently polling around 20% of the vote, can’t achieve much on their own. But if they come to an arrangement with the Green Party, they would be a force to reckon with. Together the two parties are currently close to 30% in the polls.
A deal would ideally involve the Lib Dems and Greens standing down in some seats and supporting the other – so there is one pro-European champion in those constituencies where they have a chance of winning.
But Swinson needs to do more than reach out to the Greens. In Wales, she needs to bring Plaid Cymru into a three-way pact – building on the deal they have in the Brecon & Radnorshire by-election next month. There Plaid and the Greens have stood down to give the Lib Dems a clear shot at the Tory MP. The Lib Dems need to return the favour elsewhere.
Reach out to Labour
Even that won’t be enough. The new Lib Dem leader needs to reach out to pro-European Labour and Tory MPs.
Jeremy Corbyn hasn’t yet said what he’ll do if there’s an election. But even if he unequivocally backs staying in the EU, Labour is an exceptionally tribal party. It’s hard to see it reaching a non-aggression pact with the Lib Dems and Greens – even though it should.
But the Lib Dems/Greens and Labour still don’t have to tear each other apart. The Lib Dems and Greens can stand but dial down their campaigning in those seats which Labour has a good chance of winning – provided the Labour candidate is unequivocally pro-European. And hopefully, Labour will return the favour.
There may also be a few seats – such as Johnson’s own constituency of Uxbridge – where the Lib Dems and Greens have no chance but Labour may win. Standing down in those seats, even if not reciprocated, would go down well with pro-European voters and would win them brownie points elsewhere.
Safe harbour for Tories
Swinson should also create a safe harbour for sensible Tory MPs, such as Philip Hammond and the Gaukeward Squad, who may need to bring down Johnson’s government to stop him crashing out of the EU without a deal. She shouldn’t require them to join the Lib Dems. Provided they quit the Tory Party and are unequivocally pro-European – say standing as independent Conservatives – the Lib Dems should be prepared to give them a free pass.
Sometimes this will be painful. For example, in Putney, the Lib Dems fancy their chances to unseat Justine Greening, the pro-European Tory. But Swinson needs to keep her eyes on the big picture. If the Lib Dems don’t stand against independent Conservatives, these MPs are likely to encourage voters elsewhere to vote Lib Dem.
The same goes for the remnants of Change UK, which has split into two factions each with five MPs. Swinson shouldn’t require them to join the Lib Dems, so long as they back the party elsewhere.
Virtuous circle
Such cooperative politics could give a huge boost to the pro-European cause. Pro-Europeans voters are tired of tribalism and desperately want people to work together.
The stronger any Lib Dem/Green-led pact looks, the more votes it will get. It could then enjoy a virtuous circle. The media will give it more attention, as it will look more credible. Activists will put in more time. Donors will give it more money. And all that will further enhance its chances of success.
Swinson has a huge opportunity – provided she really does work across party lines. She should grab it with vigour.