An election only makes sense if MPs can’t agree to put Boris Johnson’s deal to a People’s Vote. It would be a mistake not to try for a referendum first.
The Lib Dems and SNP have come up with a proposal to get an early election. Rather than vote in favour of the Prime Minister’s motion under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, they want to amend the FTPA so that the election is fixed for December 9. (Here’s the text.)
This would stop Johnson rushing his deal through Parliament before polling day because there wouldn’t be enough time. It would also prevent him deploying a “bait-and-switch” strategy – getting MPs to agree to an early election on the basis that it will be held on December 12 only to switch to a much later date. (Unless the FTPA is amended, no date would be set in law for an early election and it would be left to the Prime Minister to advise the Queen when it should be held).
The Lib Dem/SNP idea is interesting. But they are giving up the fight for a referendum too soon. After all, as the flaws in Johnson’s deal become increasingly apparent, the chances of persuading MPs to back a confirmatory referendum are rising.
19 Labour MPs supported his Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB) on its “second reading” last week. But the number may now be falling because Johnson is double-crossing them over workers’ rights. The government is planning to diverge from the EU on regulation and workers’ rights according to a leaked document obtained by the FT.
Meanwhile, the number of “whipless” Tory MPs prepared to vote for the WAB may also drop because they rightly fear Johnson could crash out of the EU’s single market at the end of next year, even if his deal passes. The business minister Kwasi Kwarteng let the cat out of the bag yesterday by saying no deal “can’t be taken off the table”.
Many of these MPs had been hoping to force the Prime Minister to seek either a customs union with the EU or a longer “transition” to give more time for negotiations. But increasingly they realise that amendments to the WAB along those lines are worth little. After all, if Johnson wins a majority in an election, as he seems likely to, he could pass new legislation and tear them up.
If such Labour MPs and whipless Tories aren’t willing to support the WAB, they may swing in favour of a “confirmatory referendum” as the last resort option. The people would then have a choice between Johnson’s deal and staying in the EU.
It would be a mistake to rush into an election before testing whether there is now a majority in favour of such a plan. If it failed, the FTPA could be amended, as the Lib Dems and SNP suggest, and an election held.
The “rebel alliance” in Parliament is fracturing as a result of the Lib Dem/SNP move. A compromise along these lines might bring it back together.