It may be counter-intuitive to take Boris Johnson at his word on anything. But now that the Conservative Party’s manifesto has stated so categorically that they will not extend the Brexit transition period beyond the end of 2020, it might be sensible to assume that the intention really is to take the country over the cliff edge if an agreement on a new UK/EU relationship cannot be negotiated and ratified by then.
That is what is said on the tin which the electorate is being asked to buy on December 12. And there would be plenty of resistance within from Conservative MPs to any attempt to resile from that, not least because all the party’s candidates have pledged to uphold the manifesto commitments on Brexit.
So is the prospect of leaving without a deal at the end of 2020 any less damaging than it was when the country was forced to look over that cliff edge in March, April and October of this year? Not in the slightest. The negative implications of such an eventuality – for the economy, inward investment, trade, the union of the United Kingdom and our internal security – would be just as dire as they were seen to be then. Indeed, with our economy already growing at a snail’s pace, if at all, they could well be worse.
What about threatening the other EU countries with a no-deal exit at the end of 2020? Is that any more likely to persuade them to give us a deal which they consider to be against their own interests and risky for their solidarity and the integrity of their single market?
Well, weaponising a no-deal exit did not work very well in 2019 and is no more likely to do so in 2020. The hard facts will remain that we are more at risk on pretty well any part of the no-deal Brexit equation than they are. And, with the leadership of the European Council and the European Commission changing next month, we can expect their priorities to shift – away from Brexit and onto issues like the environment, the next seven-year budget, migration and security.
All of which leads to the conclusion that it is foolish to be flirting again with the idea of leaving without a deal. Better, surely, not to go there.
