After the prime minister caved into pressure from ministers today, the chance of crashing out on March 29 is slim. The chance of getting her deal through has also shrunk. It is now highly likely that Brexit will be delayed, if not cancelled.
But any delay needs a good reason. Just kicking the can and frittering away extra time isn’t good enough.
Theresa May has said again and again that she will take us out of the EU on March 29. But today she made a statement in the House of Commons that is almost certain to delay Brexit.
MPs will get another vote on her deal by March 12. If they say “no”, MPs will vote on whether to quit without a deal on March 13. And if that fails, as it almost certainly will, the prime minister will propose a motion to ask the EU for extra time on March 14.
The last time she asked MPs to back her deal, she lost by 230 votes. She may do better next time. But it’s hard to see her winning a majority. After all, she will no longer be able to threaten them that it is her deal or no deal. MPs will see that the real choice is her deal or delay – and playing for time will seem attractive to many.
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The prime minister only made today’s commitment because as many as 20 ministers were prepared to resign to support a cross-party amendment that would have forced her to do pretty much what she set out in her statement. Her u-turn is a big victory for these ministers, led by Amber Rudd, David Gauke and Greg Clark.
But as May herself rightly says, delaying Brexit on its own doesn’t solve the problem. Parliament also needs to decide what it actually wants to do and there are only three options: leave with no deal, leave with a deal or don’t leave at all.
Much the best way of stopping Brexit is to ask the people whether they still want to leave. With Jeremy Corbyn backing a new referendum yesterday, there’s a good chance MPs will eventually support that.
A key question in the coming weeks will be how long Brexit should be delayed. The prime minister said she would propose a “short limited” delay if she can’t get her deal through. She probably has two or three months in mind. But that is clearly not long enough to hold a referendum.
So MPs must be able to ask for a longer delay. They are rightly asking for assurances that they can.
Meanwhile, the moderate ministers are now stronger in the battles ahead. They did not need to resign, so they can press their case within government. And they are operating as a cohesive team.
It’s not clear what their next fight will be. But the really big one will be over whether to have a People’s Vote. When the prime minister next says she will never agree to a new referendum, remember how she used to say she’d never agree to a delay.