Many pro-Europeans criticise the Labour leader for wanting to be neutral in a referendum after an election. But that’s not the real mistake. The big error is wanting an election before a referendum.
Jeremy Corbyn set out his views in the Guardian today:
A Labour government would secure a sensible deal based on the terms we have long advocated, including a new customs union with the EU; a close single market relationship; and guarantees of workers’ rights and environmental protections. We would then put that to a public vote alongside remain. I will pledge to carry out whatever the people decide, as a Labour prime minister.
The frustration of pro-European members of the Labour Party with this position is palpable. Why oh why, they ask, can’t Corbyn come off the fence decisively and say he would back “Remain” in a future referendum? They worry that Labour would lose votes in an election to the Lib Dems, who have adopted a policy of cancelling Brexit in the (totally unrealistic) scenario where they won an overall majority.
But for the pro-European ecosystem as a whole, the combination of Labour fudge and Lib Dem clarity is probably quite good. Although Labour would lose some votes to the Lib Dems, it would scoop up votes from soft Leavers who would otherwise desert the party for the Tories or the Brexit Party.
What’s more, it may be a blessing in disguise if Corbyn himself doesn’t campaign in a referendum and leaves the fight to more enthusiastic members of his party such as Keir Starmer, John McDonnell and Emily Thornberry. In 2016, his half-hearted support for Remain was worse than neutrality.
No, Corbyn’s real error would be to give Boris Johnson an election before holding a referendum. This is what he wrote in the Guardian: “As soon as no deal is off the table, and the prime minister has complied with the law, we need a general election to get rid of Johnson’s Tory government.”
If the Labour leader could be confident of winning an election, fine. But Labour is behind the Conservatives in the polls. What’s more, because of the way our “first-past-the-post” electoral system works, Johnson could win an overall majority with as little as a third of the vote. So rushing into an election could put no-deal right back on the table, even if most of the electorate didn’t want it.
Much better to have a referendum first. That would decide Brexit once and for all. It would be a clear contest – not muddied by other issues or the vagaries of the electoral system. Once that was over, the people could then choose in an election who they want to govern the country.
This is what most Labour MPs want. It’s also what many activists want. At their party’s conference, which starts this weekend, they need to make their voices loud and clear.