There have now been two polls in two days suggesting – at least at first glance – that the majority of the public favours a “no deal” Brexit. Dig deeper and that’s clearly not the case.
Brexiters have been making hay with this polling, both in Parliament and on the front pages of right-wing newspapers. Arch Brexiter John Redwood announced in the Commons yesterday that “half the public” now think that leaving without an agreement is “the right thing to do”. Meanwhile the Telegraph today ran the misleading headline: “Every region of England and Wales happy to leave the EU without a deal – except London”.
But “happy” is far from the feeling YouGov’s latest poll highlighted. In fact, just a quarter of the public think “no deal” would be a good outcome, with double that number thinking it would be a bad outcome.
The Telegraph’s headline referred to what people wanted to do in the very specific scenario that we couldn’t agree a deal or extension with the EU, and were then faced with a choice between “no deal” or cancelling Brexit altogether. All the more reason to avoid this devil’s choice, secure a decent amount of extra time, avoid the “bad” outcome of no deal and settle Brexit democratically with a People’s Vote.
Another poll by Britain Thinks, appearing in the Guardian yesterday, suggested 46% thought it now “better to leave with no deal” compared to 38% who didn’t. This poll was focused on Brexit fatigue amongst the public. A comment from a participant in one of Britain Thinks’ focus groups was very telling: “The advantage of leaving [without a deal] would have been not having to hear about it any more. I don’t mean that in a flippant way. It would be lovely to turn the TV on and not have to hear about it and move on.”
So the overwhelming point emerging here is that people just want Brexit to go away. But a no-deal crash out from the EU won’t make that happen. We’d spend years stuck in political arguments and trying to work out our new relationship with the world, then decades suffering a lagging economy and be swept up by recrimination and blame.
The best way to prevent years of debate on Brexit is to stay in the EU, and the democratic way to get there is a People’s Vote. If the question had been posed in those terms, with the likely realities contextualised and explained, the response from a Brexit-weary public would undoubtedly have been very different. So when Brexiters claim half the country wants “no deal” – don’t believe it.