Hats off to the Greens and Plaid Cymru for stepping down in Brecon and Radnorshire to let the Lib Dems win the by-election in this Tory seat. This is the first of hopefully many victories for the so-called Remain alliance.
It shows that when pro-European parties work together rather than fight each other, they can cause Brexiters lots of damage. This is an important lesson if there’s a general election later this year. Boris Johnson’s majority is now down to just one. It is increasingly likely MPs will stop him crashing out of the EU without a deal – and that might trigger an election.
But we must not kid ourselves. The Conservatives came very close to holding onto the Welsh seat. If they had squeezed the Brexit Party vote, they would have won. What’s more, Labour was not part of the Remain alliance. Although its vote was savaged – with presumably lots of its pro-European supporters voting tactically for the Lib Dems – it still managed to get just over 5%. If its support had held up, again the Tories would have won.
Here are the numbers.
Brecon & Radnorshire, result:
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) August 2, 2019
LDEM: 43.5% (+14.3)
CON: 39.0% (-9.6)
BREX: 10.5% (+10.5)
LAB: 5.3% (-12.5)
MRLP: 1.0% (+1.0)
UKIP: 0.8% (-0.6)
So much depends on how the pro-European and pro-Brexit votes split – and how much people vote tactically. In Brecon, these factors worked to the advantage of pro-Europeans. They had a pact between four parties – the Lib Dems, Greens, Plaid and Renew. There was no pact of the devils between the Tories and the Brexit Party.
The one good thing to come out of Dominic Cummings’ appointment as Boris Johnson’s most powerful official is that Nigel Farage loathes him. So the hard Brexit forces may stay divided.
But we should not count on this. Even if there’s no formal arrangement between the Conservatives and the Brexit Party, there may be some informal pact – potentially brokered by Donald Trump, who likes both Johnson and Farage.
Alternatively, the new prime minister may squeeze the Brexit Party’s vote further without any deal. Johnson’s cocktail of hard Brexit and lashings of populism may give him a bigger “Boris bounce” in the opinion polls than the one he is already enjoying.
Meanwhile, the Remain alliance isn’t fully developed. The Lib Dems, Greens and Plaid need to stand down for each other in every winnable seat across England and Wales. And they will need to offer a safe harbour for Conservative MPs who are prepared to stand as independents if Johnson is determined to crash out of the EU.
Somehow Labour also has to be involved. Even if it won’t be part of a formal pact, a Remain alliance and Labour shouldn’t fight hard where they have no chance of winning. And pro-European voters will need to be smart and choose the candidate in each seat who can best stop Brexit.
Achieving all this will be hard. Tribalism is strong in politics. But the nation’s future is at stake. Brecon is a beacon of hope. Let’s build on it.