Michael Gove keeps telling the British people they have nothing to fear from quitting the EU. But the Vote Leave boss’ latest admission- that we won’t leave the EU by 2020 – shows he is himself afraid of triggering divorce proceedings.
Gove told ITV’s Robert Peston: “We won’t have left the European Union by the end of this parliament”. That surprised a few Brexiteers. After all, the way to quit the EU is to invoke Article 50 of its treaty – something which starts a two-year negotiation process. If we triggered Article 50 immediately after the referendum, we would cease to be an EU member by mid-2018, nearly two years before the end of this parliament.
So Gove’s admission suggests we won’t trigger Article 50 until at least mid-2018. (The alternative, getting an extension, is only possible if all the other 27 countries agree.)
The Vote Leave boss is right to fear starting divorce proceedings immediately because, once the two-year clock starts ticking, our back will be up against the wall. If we don’t manage to cut a new deal in two years, we would have to rely on World Trade Organisation (WTO) terms for our trade with the EU. It would not only give us a lot less access to the single market than we currently have; we would have less access than the Canadian and Albanian models that Boris Johnson and Gove have trumpeted. That would severely damage our economy.
But delaying Brexit for at least four years isn’t an easy option either.
For a start, it doesn’t sit easily with the Leave camp’s claim that the EU needs us more than we need it. If that were really so – and it’s not – Gove would have nothing to fear from triggering Article 50. It would be the other 27 countries who would have their backs to the wall.
Meanwhile, the Leave camp has dismissed the government’s prediction that Brexit could launch a “decade of uncertainty” as ludicrous. But now we have Vote Leave’s campaign chair admitting the process of leaving will be at least four years long. The problem is the longer the uncertainty, the greater the damage to the economy.
A long divorce process would be agonising for three other reasons – at least if Gove had anything to do with it. First, he and Boris Johnson have promised “immediately to end the application of the EU’s Charter of Fundamental Rights to UK law.” This would put us in breach of our treaty obligations. Second, Gove has made clear he doesn’t just want to quit the EU, he wants to destroy it. Third, he has promised to blackmail the EU until it gives us what we want. Such policies are bound to antagonise our partners.
And now we hear that this process of confrontation could go on for at least four years. Such irresponsible rhetoric would send investors running to the hills, increasing the risk of a deep recession.
Hugo Dixon is the author of The In/Out Question: Why Britain should stay in the EU and fight to make it better. Available here for £5 (paperback), £2.50 (e-book)