Though Labour isn’t opposed to Brexit, its position has shifted a lot since the general election. But the party, whose conference starts in Brighton on Sunday, still has a long way to go.
Jeremy Corbyn has scented power and become a much more effective leader of the opposition since June 8. He realises that Brexit could divide the Tories, so letting him into Downing Street. He also knows that Labour MPs, members and voters are predominantly pro-European. The young Corbynistas, who have been his most ardent supporters, are among the most enthusiastic to stay in the EU.
Such thinking explains why Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, was able to set out a plan last month to stay in the single market and customs union during a multi-year transitional period after we quit the EU. That put clear blue water between Labour and the Tories.
The snag is that the Conservatives have now also shifted. Theresa May is expected to set out a position on the transition very similar to Labour’s new approach in her speech in Florence tomorrow.
If Corbyn is to create clear blue water again so he can continue to harry the Tories, he will have to shift ground again. The obvious next step is to advocate staying in the single market and customs union permanently, something both he and Starmer have suggested is an option. This would put flesh on the bones of Labour’s slogan of a “jobs-first” Brexit.
Even after such a shift, the party would still be a long way from saying we should stay in the EU. Unfortunately, there is at present no chance of persuading Labour to back such a view. This is partly because it believes quitting the EU is the only way to respect the will of the people and partly because many of its MPs are in constituencies that voted Leave.
That said, Labour pro-Europeans should point out that the will of the people could change as voters realise the government is making a dog’s dinner of the whole escapade. They can also warn that, if the party doesn’t eventually move in a more pro-European direction, some of its voters might decamp to the Liberal Democrats or Greens.
Things won’t come to a head for about year. That’s when May will either come back from Brussels with a bad exit deal or no deal at all. While Labour will almost certainly oppose the government at that point, the critical question will be what it then proposes. Ideally, it will agree that the voters need to be asked whether they really want to leave once see what a mess Brexit is. Labour’s pro-Europeans need to start preparing the ground for such a switch in policy in Brighton.