Though Labour isn’t opposed to Brexit, its position has shifted a lot since the general election. But the party, whose conference starts in Brighton on Sunday, still has a long way to go.
Jeremy Corbyn has scented power and become a much more effective leader of the opposition since June 8. He realises that Brexit could divide the Tories, so letting him into Downing Street. He also knows that Labour MPs, members and voters are predominantly pro-European. The young Corbynistas, who have been his most ardent supporters, are among the most enthusiastic to stay in the EU.
Such thinking explains why Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, was able to set out a plan last month to stay in the single market and customs union during a multi-year transitional period after we quit the EU. That put clear blue water between Labour and the Tories.
The snag is that the Conservatives have now also shifted. Theresa May is expected to set out a position on the transition very similar to Labour’s new approach in her speech in Florence tomorrow.
If Corbyn is to create clear blue water again so he can continue to harry the Tories, he will have to shift ground again. The obvious next step is to advocate staying in the single market and customs union permanently, something both he and Starmer have suggested is an option. This would put flesh on the bones of Labour’s slogan of a “jobs-first” Brexit.
Even after such a shift, the party would still be a long way from saying we should stay in the EU. Unfortunately, there is at present no chance of persuading Labour to back such a view. This is partly because it believes quitting the EU is the only way to respect the will of the people and partly because many of its MPs are in constituencies that voted Leave.
That said, Labour pro-Europeans should point out that the will of the people could change as voters realise the government is making a dog’s dinner of the whole escapade. They can also warn that, if the party doesn’t eventually move in a more pro-European direction, some of its voters might decamp to the Liberal Democrats or Greens.
Things won’t come to a head for about year. That’s when May will either come back from Brussels with a bad exit deal or no deal at all. While Labour will almost certainly oppose the government at that point, the critical question will be what it then proposes. Ideally, it will agree that the voters need to be asked whether they really want to leave once see what a mess Brexit is. Labour’s pro-Europeans need to start preparing the ground for such a switch in policy in Brighton.
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Edited by Sam Ashworth-Hayes
I am glad that Hugo Dixon is – adequately – relaxed about waiting. It has its dangers, but is the only way we will see a sufficient swing in public opinion to convince enough voters that the “will of the people” is not that we leave the EU. (I don’t believe it ever was – the referendum was criminally distorted and would have been declared void, or have gone 13:12 the other way, if any rules had been agreed in advance).
We can almost rely on the negotiating team to mess it up: they are not very bright, and the job is impossible anyway.
Alright, so we stay in the single market and the customs union. Er, so what’s the point of leaving the EU at all ? Oh yes, migration. Strange that so many of the EU member states are now coming round to see that maybe Hungary is right, and maybe the EU shouldn’t have a permanently open door.
Hey, here’s a laugh, we leave, largely because of immigration, and then the EU stops taking in any more migrants. LOL.
I don’t know whether you were aware of this, but since 2004, European Union law has allowed governments to control movements of EU citizens as follows: allow EU citizens to freely circulate only for three months and then require them (should they want to stay longer) to show they are working (employed or self-employed), a registered student or have sufficient resources (pension, savings) to support themselves and comprehensive sickness insurance eg a valid European health insurance card enabling the NHS to claim back the cost of treatment or have private health insurance. The UK is one of the few governments that has not implemented this.
For six years, Theresa May was in charge of the Home Office responsible for immigration, yet did nothing to adopt these conditions. One wonders why not and why immigration was allowed to dominate the referendum and is still being paraded as a big problem. Yet another failure of our own government and the Home Office under Theresa May is being blamed on the EU. The remedy was always in the UK’s hands.
I agree. The housing problem is due to government policy not, as claimed, excessive demands by migrants. Equally, the NHS is barely coping to provide services and this is the fault of current government policy. Not migrant workers.
France has a rule that people moving from one area to another must register with the local Marie. Easily done and does not intrude on privacy or freedom. France also provides a functioning health service as do most, if not all, of the EU member states.