With barely two weeks to go, the national polls point to a majority for Boris Johnson and his disastrous Brexit plans. But what if those polls give too much weight to national averages and not enough to the particular circumstances in individual constituencies?
A close reading of the runes in seven seats suggests the battle to stop this madness is far from lost. Analysis by Datapraxis combining polling data with other features of each constituency such as age and demographics shows how. It demonstrates that tactical voting could unseat some Big Brexiter Beasts, including in a best-case scenario Johnson himself.
Let’s look at the math. In his adoptive constituency of Uxbridge and South Ruislip, where he famously promised to lie down in front of bulldozers to stop a new runway at Heathrow, Johnson had a majority at the 2017 election of just over 5,000, half the figure in 2015 and the lowest for a sitting Prime Minister since 1924. If turnout is high, especially among under-40s, and Lib Debs and Greens vote tactically for Labour, the challenger Ali Milani has a chance of staging the biggest upset of the election by toppling Johnson.
Even if Johnson prevails, there are other, more vulnerable targets which are also juicy. Dominic Raab, the widely disliked Foreign Secretary, won by a large margin in 2017 but his constituency Esher amd Walton voted 58% Remain in the referendum and poll projections see his majority this time falling to just under 3,000. Surely it wouldn’t take an earthquake to persuade Tory and Labour Remainers to band together to replace this most rabid of Brexiteers, who admitted as Brexit Secretary that he didn’t know Britain relied on trade between Dover and Calais.
Similar logic could apply in Wokingham, where the even more swivel-eyed John Redwood is defending his 2017 majority against former fellow-Tory Phillip Lee; or Chingford, where Iain Duncan-Smith, arch-Brexit-spokesman as well as the most incompetent Tory leader of modern times, had a wafer-thin margin last time and could lose it to Labour if enough Lib Dems vote tactically.
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In Richmond Park, Lib Dem Sarah Olney is all but certain to repeat her 2015 victory over dodgy Zac Goldsmith. Other vulnerable Brexit beasts include hardline ERG Chairman Steve Baker in Wycombe and Trump admirer Philip Davies in Shipley.
So voters of Uxbridge, Esher, Wokingham, Chingford, Richmond Park, Shipley and Wycombe, the message is clear: vote tactically to topple your Tories and stop a Hard Brexit. Yes, you can!
