The first chapter of the Liberal Democrats’ manifesto is about Britain and the EU. That sense of priorities is a vivid demonstration of the party’s commitment to Europe. But it is also a reminder that the Brexit vote of June 2016 was a body blow for a party whose European identity has been central to its post-war identity. Shell-shocked by their near wipe-out in 2015 and horrified by the referendum result, they seized on this snap election as an opportunity to rebuild.
Yet despite powerfully articulating the concerns of those who voted Remain, the 48% have not rallied to the Lib Dem’s standard. The party is stuck at or below 10% in the opinion polls.
The manifesto’s core argument is that people voted to leave the EU in 2016 but not for what “out” would look like. The Lib Dems want an agreement with the EU that keeps Britain in the single market and the customs union, one that protects the rights of individuals, that retains free movement and which maintains environmental standards and research.
In fact, the list of things they want to keep after Brexit sounds very much like the EU we have now. So it is not surprising that they offer not just a firm commitment to a referendum on the outcome of the negotiations but say they will campaign for Remain in this vote too.
This is the most solidly pro-European statement of the three main parties. It contrasts sharply with Labour’s failure to differentiate itself significantly from the Tories on most aspects of Brexit. It stands in opposition to the kind of hard Brexit to which Theresa May’s Conservatives are now committed. It offers hope to Remainers of a second referendum. And yet the message doesn’t seem to have much traction.
The crucial element missing in the Lib Dems’ election campaign is the sense that they can make a difference. This is a legacy of the coalition. Supporters often felt betrayed by the coalition and historically strong areas for the party like the West Country voted Brexit. They lost support amongst young people because of tuition fees and have never regained it.
There was a belief that the Lib Dems could revive by becoming the voice of those who voted Remain. But it seems that over half of the 48% now believe that it is the government’s job to implement the referendum decision, leaving just 22% of voters who are “hard Remainers” – a far smaller pool for the Lib Dems to fish in.
Without national newspaper backing and with only a small share of broadcasting time, the party is struggling to rally even the strongest of Remainers. It is not too late for them to regain momentum but they need more than just a well-written manifesto. They need to generate a sense that voting for them can make a difference. With the Tories so far ahead in the polls, and Jeremy Corbyn energised by the campaigning he so enjoys, that is a hard task.