There was a false premise at the heart of the Leave campaign: that high EU migration was hurting public services and stopping Brits getting well-paying jobs. The facts since the referendum have not borne this out. Net migration from the EU has more than halved, according to the latest ONS figures. And yet things are worse.
If we had up-to-date numbers, they might show that net EU migration has actually ground to a halt. The latest stats, up to the year ending September 2017, show annual net migration from the EU was 90,000, compared to 189,000 in the year to June 2016. Net migration from outside the EU – which was consistently higher than EU migration before the referendum – is roughly the same as in 2016.
So, Brexiters may argue, the referendum vote has had the desired effect. But are people feeling the benefits promised them by the Leave campaign?
Quite the opposite. The NHS struggled through one of its worst winter crises on record, with staffing shortages compounded by EU nurses leaving the health service in greater numbers than they are joining. Brexit will also means less funding for the NHS. It is damaging the economy – and that’s even before we’ve left. Only today it was announced that Britain’s economy grew slower than first thought in the final three months of 2017. Boris Johnson’s £350 million per week pledge has never looked more like the lie it was.
What about the prospect of getting a job or higher wages? Yesterday we saw unemployment rise for the first time since the Brexit vote, although it’s still too early to say whether this is the beginning of a long-term trend.
Meanwhile, wages are being squeezed by price hikes brought on by the fall in the value of the pound after the Brexit vote. The Bank of England has calculated that wage growth will be knocked by 5% by the end of this year compared to what was expected before the referendum. Again, that’s before Brexit has even happened. The government’s own economic analysis predicts that every Brexit scenario will leave the country economically worse off than it would be if we stayed in the EU.
EU citizens leaving the UK does not solve these problems. The proportion of working-age EU nationals in employment is 81%, compared to 76% for UK citizens, according to new labour market. They are paying more in taxes than they are taking out of the welfare system. Their skills and hard work make our economy hum and our public services run smoothly. That’s not to mention European entrepreneurs – job creators – likely to be put off setting up shop in Britain thanks to Brexit.
Only by cancelling this destructive, distracting Brexit can we focus on the real issues blighting our country.