If the major concern of Brexiters was curbing European immigration, they can be reassured: the problem is getting sorted as Europeans are leaving spontaneously. Soon the government will face the opposite problem, trying to retain a skilled workforce that has benefitted the UK economy for the past 30 years.
Over 3 million Europeans are present in all areas of the economy, from finance to law, design, architecture, universities, construction, real estate, fashion, food, hospitality and agriculture – not to mention the NHS. By triggering their departure, the UK is committing hara-kiri.
The latest official statistics are annual figures covering the year to March, so they are out of date. But even they show a decrease of European net migration by 51,000 to 127,000.
Based on dozens of conversations I have had with fellow Europeans in London, which admittedly may not be representative, the Brexodus is accelerating. The mood of Europeans is souring. The initial surprise of the Brexit vote has given way to anger and a sense of betrayal. Most people I talk to are considering not if but how and when to leave, because the country isn’t attractive to them any more.
I know of at least a couple of dozen affluent Europeans who have left since the referendum. Some Brits may say “good riddance”. But will they be so happy to lose the spending power and taxes of this highly mobile group?
I know of two Italian delicatessens in Notting Hill and one in Shoreditch that have closed, because their profit margins on imported European food were squeezed by the falling pound. A successful hairdresser in Fulham who opened three shops in the last 10 years has shut one because he can find no more skilled European workers, and no skilled locals to take their place. He has also lost 15-20% of his clientele, mainly Italians, French and Spaniards who have left the country.
Meanwhile, there’s a serious risk of a brain drain, according to a poll of Italian academics by the Italian embassy. Italians are the second biggest foreign contingent of academics in the country. The poll found 82% are considering leaving or have decided to go. Only 18% definitely wish to stay.
Europeans who leave will discover new locations they like or find out that their original countries are not so bad after all. Their departure will then be permanent. In other words, once the emotional tide has turned, it will be very difficult to turn it back. Even if May negotiates a deal over European citizens in Brussels, it may be too late. Many will simply have voted with their feet.
The headline of this article was changed shortly after publication.