What will happen to EU migrants post-Brexit?

Around 3 million EU migrants live in the UK, while some 1.2 million Brits are in other EU countries. A Brexit could put them all in an uncertain position.

Resolving their situation is important not just for the people themselves, but for the businesses who employ them, the local economy of places like the Costa del Sol, and so on. In a letter to the Financial Times on Monday, a range of luminaries from the Institute of Directors to Migration Watch have called for clarity on the issue, and to have, ahead of the referendum campaign, a “broad consensus” that their rights would be protected after a Brexit. “Current EU migrants … should be able to continue to live and work” in the countries they have moved to, they argue.

So far, plenty have signed up. Vote Leave have said the rights of EU citizens living in the UK “will not be threatened or undermined” if the country votes for Brexit. UKIP policy is to offer “existing EU citizens … the opportunity to seek permanent right to reside and citizenship” after leaving the EU. The government has conceded that we would have to offer reciprocal arrangements for EU citizens in the UK in exchange for protecting Brits’ rights abroad. But the consensus is not universal – an online survey suggested 25% of Britons do not agree that existing migrants should keep their rights.

The letter’s authors are right to say the consensus needs to be broad. As it stands, no single person can claim speak for all Out campaigners. But it also needs to be specific.

For one thing, under their proposal, all those arriving before a certain date would have their rights protected. But which date – referendum day? The day the UK formally notifies the EU of its decision to leave? Or the day a Brexit treaty actually comes into effect? Not only could those dates be several years apart, but there could be a significant effect on behaviour of both British emigrants and EU immigrants. Once the cut-off deadline is known, who knows how many may try to slip in ahead of it.

Furthermore, many EU migrants here may come for seasonal work like fruit-picking, without staying long enough to register. It is entirely unclear what their status would be if we leave the Union – the guarantees given by the “outers” may not apply to them.

Nor can anybody know what rights expat Brits who live in the EU part time would retain. It will not be up to British lawmakers. It is even uncertain how many of them there are – figures are hard to come by, and may involve some guesswork. In 2010, the Institute for Public Policy Research estimated many Brits live abroad only part of the year, including about 200,000 in Spain, and 100,000 in France.

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As QC George Peretz has previously argued here, the right to free movement actually unpacks into a range of rights. How many of them would be protected? A Brit in the Dordogne may continue to have the right to live in France, but would they also have the ongoing right to seek a new job, buy a new home, use public services and pay taxes like a local, have their spouse join them, and so on? Nobody in the leave camp can say for sure. It’s another question Out campaigners need to answer.

The paragraphs on part-time and seasonal residents were edited shortly after publication to set out the argument in more detail.

Edited by Victor Sebestyen